Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s
Increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions, periods of excessive inflation, reduced productivity and lower economic growth. In this paper, we review the arguments supporting such views. First, we highlight some of the conceptual difficulties in assigning a central role to oil price shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, and we trace how the arguments of proponents of the oil view have evolved in response to these difficulties. Second, we challenge the notion that at least the major oil price movements can be viewed as exogenous with respect to the US macroeconomy. We examine critically the evidence that has led many economists to ascribe a central role to exogenous political events in modeling the oil market, and we provide arguments in favor of 'reverse causality' from macroeconomic variables to oil prices. Third, although none of the more recent oil price shocks has been associated with stagflation in the US economy, a major reason for the continued popularity of the oil shock hypothesis has been the perception that only oil price shocks are able to explain the US stagflation of the 1970s. We show that this is not the case.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Barsky, Robert B. and Lutz Kilian. "Oil and The Macroeconomy Since The 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004, v18(4,Fall), 115-134.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hamilton, James D., 2003.
"What is an oil shock?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
- Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002.
"The NAIRU in Theory and Practice,"
NBER Working Papers
8940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Economics Working Paper Archive 475, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Michael P. Keane & Eswar Prasad, 1995.
"The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis,"
IMF Working Papers
95/37, International Monetary Fund.
- Keane, Michael P & Prasad, Eswar S, 1996. "The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 389-400, August.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997.
"Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
- Bohi, Douglas R., 1991. "On the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 145-162, June.
- Green, Edward J & Porter, Robert H, 1984.
"Noncooperative Collusion under Imperfect Price Information,"
Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 87-100, January.
- Edward J Green & Robert H Porter, 1997. "Noncooperative Collusion Under Imperfect Price Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1147, David K. Levine.
- Green, Edward J. & Porter, Robert H., 1982. "Noncooperative Collusion Under Imperfect Price Information," Working Papers 367, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995.
"Measuring Monetary Policy,"
10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1984.
"Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy Revisited,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 38-43, May.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1980.
"Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
- Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, September.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
- Olson, Mancur, 1988. "The Productivity Slowdown, the Oil Shocks, and the Real Cycle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 43-69, Fall.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10855. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.