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The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy

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  • Gómez-Loscos, Ana
  • Montañés, Antonio
  • Gadea, M. Dolores

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of oil price shocks on both the GDP growth and on inflation in the economy of Spain and its seventeen regions. The Qu and Perron (2007) and the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003a and 2003b) methods identify different periods across the sample. Evidence of a diminishing effect of oil price shocks on GDP growth and on inflation is found from the 1970s until the mid 1980s. However, in contrast with previous literature, we find a renewed effect on both these macroeconomic variables after the mid 80s. In Spain, it recovers some of its initial importance in the second half of the 1990s for GDP and between 1986 and 1994 and the 2000s for inflation. In the regions, the influence of oil price shocks on the GDP progressively disappears while the impact on inflation decreases from 1986 onwards but becomes significant again ten years later. The most outstanding result is that oil price movements explain at least some of the recent inflation. Therefore, policy measures to control the economic impact of oil shocks should be implemented in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Montañés, Antonio & Gadea, M. Dolores, 2011. "The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1070-1081.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:6:p:1070-1081
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.05.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Moya-Martínez, Pablo & Ferrer-Lapeña, Román & Escribano-Sotos, Francisco, 2014. "Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 280-290.
    2. María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2016. "Oil Price and Economic Growth: A Long Story?," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, October.
    3. Behrouzi, Fatemeh & Nakisa, Mehdi & Maimun, Adi & Ahmed, Yasser M., 2016. "Global renewable energy and its potential in Malaysia: A review of Hydrokinetic turbine technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1270-1281.
    4. Solaymani, Saeed & Kari, Fatimah, 2013. "Environmental and economic effects of high petroleum prices on transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 435-441.
    5. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:16:p:1637-1654 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chong, Heap-Yih & Lam, Wei-Haur, 2013. "Ocean renewable energy in Malaysia: The potential of the Straits of Malacca," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 169-178.
    7. Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Montañés, Antonio & Gadea, M. Dolores, 2011. "The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1070-1081.
    8. repec:eco:journ1:2017-03-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Sertoglu, Kamil & Candemir, Mehmet & Mercan, Mehmet, 2015. "Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 257-270.
    10. Raghavan, Mala, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on ASEAN-5 economies," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    11. Solaymani, Saeed & Kari, Fatimah, 2014. "Impacts of energy subsidy reform on the Malaysian economy and transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 115-125.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil shocks; Inflation; Cycles; Time series;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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