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Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks

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  • Kapetanios, G.
  • Tzavalis, E.

Abstract

This paper introduces a new model of structural breaks in the coefficients of economic relationships which allows them to be driven by large past economic shocks. The breaks generated by these shocks can be taken to reflect stochastic changes in agents' decisions or beliefs triggered by extraordinary economic events. Our model specifies that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic. The last property of it enables us to investigate qualitative effects that large shocks can have on economic relationships. As an empirical application of our model, the paper investigates the stability the oil-economy relationship since the early sixties. From the six large oil-shocks identified by our data, the paper shows that only the first oil shock at the end of 1973 has caused a major long term adverse effect on economic activity. All the large oil price shocks that have happened since then did not have any significant negative effects on the slope of the oil-economy relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:3:p:417-436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Polemis, Michael L. & Fotis, Panagiotis N., 2014. "The taxation effect on gasoline price asymmetry nexus: Evidence from both sides of the Atlantic," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 225-233.
    2. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Level shifts in stock returns driven by large shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-51.
    3. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Shifts in volatility driven by large stock market shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-147.
    4. Eklund, Jana & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2010. "Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change," Bank of England working papers 406, Bank of England.
    5. Managi, Shunsuke & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-9.
    6. Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Montañés, Antonio & Gadea, M. Dolores, 2011. "The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1070-1081.
    7. Ana Gómez-Loscos & María Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4575-4589, December.
    8. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
    9. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2014. "Evolving UK and US macroeconomic dynamics through the lens of a model of deterministic structural change," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 305-345, August.
    10. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
    11. Polemis, Michael L. & Tsionas, Mike G., 2016. "An alternative semiparametric approach to the modelling of asymmetric gasoline price adjustment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 384-388.
    12. Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2011. "Evolving UK and US macroeconomic dynamics through the lens of a model of deterministic structural change," Bank of England working papers 434, Bank of England.
    13. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia & Lambertides, Neophytos & Savva, Christos S., 2015. "The effect of security and market order flow shocks on co-movement," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 136-155.
    14. Hahn, Warren J. & DiLellio, James A. & Dyer, James S., 2014. "What do market-calibrated stochastic processes indicate about the long-term price of crude oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 212-221.

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