IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks

  • Kapetanios, G.
  • Tzavalis, E.

This paper introduces a new model of structural breaks in the coefficients of economic relationships which allows them to be driven by large past economic shocks. The breaks generated by these shocks can be taken to reflect stochastic changes in agents' decisions or beliefs triggered by extraordinary economic events. Our model specifies that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic. The last property of it enables us to investigate qualitative effects that large shocks can have on economic relationships. As an empirical application of our model, the paper investigates the stability the oil-economy relationship since the early sixties. From the six large oil-shocks identified by our data, the paper shows that only the first oil shock at the end of 1973 has caused a major long term adverse effect on economic activity. All the large oil price shocks that have happened since then did not have any significant negative effects on the slope of the oil-economy relationship.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V85-4XF83N9-1/2/e94e059c18e704d8ed06f927d111130b
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 417-436

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:3:p:417-436
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  2. Balke, Nathan S, 1993. "Detecting Level Shifts in Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 81-92, January.
  3. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1999. "Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes," NBER Working Papers 7095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Atkinson, A. C. & Koopman, S. J. & Shephard, N., 1997. "Detecting shocks: Outliers and breaks in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 387-422, October.
  8. Jesús Gonzalo & Michael Wolf, 2001. "Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models," Economics Working Papers 573, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  9. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03.
  10. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Smith, Aaron, 1998. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt99v0s0zx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  12. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Kapetanios, George, 2000. "Small sample properties of the conditional least squares estimator in SETAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 267-276, December.
  14. George Kapetanios & Elias Tzavalis, 2006. "Stochastic Volatility Driven by Large Shocks," Working Papers 568, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  15. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
  16. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
  17. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
  18. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Estimation and Forecasting in Models with Multiple Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 763-789.
  19. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  20. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
  21. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  22. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
  23. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521632423 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Tweedie, Richard L., 1975. "Sufficient conditions for ergodicity and recurrence of Markov chains on a general state space," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 385-403, October.
  25. Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  26. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521634809 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:3:p:417-436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.