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Oil price volatility: Origins and effects

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  • Kilian, Lutz

Abstract

In recent years, our understanding of the nature of energy price shocks and their effects on the economy has evolved dramatically. Only a few years ago, the prevailing view in the literature was that at least the major crude oil prices increases were exogenous with respect to the OECD economies and that these increases were caused by oil supply disruptions triggered by political disturbances in the Middle East. This view has little empirical support. Likewise, the popular notion that OPEC constitutes a cartel that controls the price of oil has not held up to scrutiny. At the same time, there has been increasing recognition of the importance of shifts in the demand for oil. Recent research has provided robust evidence that oil demand shocks played a central role in all major oil price shock episodes since the 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilian, Lutz, 2010. "Oil price volatility: Origins and effects," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201002
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    4. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2017. "Asymmetry and break effects of oil price -macroeconomic fundamentals dynamics: The trade effect channel," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 12-25.
    5. Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Performance in Africa’s Oil Exporting Countries," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(5), pages 169-188, OCTOBER.
    6. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seol, Youn & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2011. "Relative energy price and investment by European firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 721-731, September.
    7. Ronald A. Ratti & M. Zahid Hasan, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89, pages 67-83, June.
    8. Le, Thai-Ha & Le, Anh Tu & Le, Ha-Chi, 2021. "The historic oil price fluctuation during the Covid-19 pandemic: What are the causes?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Gabauer, David, 2021. "A closer look into the global determinants of oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Licht, Adrian & Escribano, Álvaro, 2019. "Markov-switching score-driven multivariate models: outlier-robust measurement of the relationships between world crude oil production and US industrial production," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29030, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    11. Sajjad Barkordari & maryam fattahi, 2017. "An Equilibrium Aggregate Demand And Supply Model To Examine The Dynamic Effect Of Oil Price Shocks On Output And Inflation In Iran As An Oil Exporting Country," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 839-846.
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2018. "The volatility effect on precious metals prices in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-34, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    13. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2015. "Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market performance: Do nature of shocks and economies matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 261-274.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility risk in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 572-584.
    15. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013829, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    16. Tarek Bouazizi & Mongi Lassoued & Zouhaier Hadhek, 2021. "Oil Price Volatility Models during Coronavirus Crisis: Testing with Appropriate Models Using Further Univariate GARCH and Monte Carlo Simulation Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 281-292.
    17. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The impact of extreme structural oil-price shocks on clean energy and oil stocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    18. Xu, Bing & Ouenniche, Jamal, 2012. "A data envelopment analysis-based framework for the relative performance evaluation of competing crude oil prices' volatility forecasting models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 576-583.
    19. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    20. Brown, Maxwell & Siddiqui, Sauleh & Avraam, Charalampos & Bistline, John & Decarolis, Joseph & Eshraghi, Hadi & Giarola, Sara & Hansen, Matthew & Johnston, Peter & Khanal, Saroj & Molar-Cruz, Anahi, 2021. "North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    21. Chuku, Chuku & Effiong, Ekpeno & Sam, Ndifreke, 2010. "Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 24434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Muhammad Faraz Riaz & Maqbool Hussain Sial & Samia Nasreen, 2016. "Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Manufacturing Production of Pakistan," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 23-34, March.
    23. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-96.

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