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Oil prices, monetary policy, and counterfactual experiments

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  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

Recessions are associated with both rising oil prices and increases in the federal funds rate. Are recessions caused by the spikes in oil prices or by the sharp tightening of monetary policy? This paper discusses the difficulties in disentangling these two effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2005. "Oil prices, monetary policy, and counterfactual experiments," Working Papers (Old Series) 0510, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0510
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-200510
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
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    7. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
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