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Anticipated Raw Materials Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Response - A New Keynesian Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Winkler, Roland C.
  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner

Abstract

The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated raw materials price increases for small open oil-dependent economies and investigates the con- sequences of several monetary policy rules in response to commodity price shocks. Based on a calibrated New Keynesian open economy model the analysis shows that anticipated increases in the price of oil will involve oil- dependent economies both in temporary inflation and deflation as well as in output expansion and contraction. Compared to an interest rate Taylor rule a money growth rule is more appropriate to reduce the volatility of the CPI inflation rate whereas just the opposite holds for stabilizing the output gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkler, Roland C. & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Anticipated Raw Materials Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Response - A New Keynesian Approach," Economics Working Papers 2006-19, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    3. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-286, April.
    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    7. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
    8. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    9. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    11. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-291, April.
    12. Finn, Mary G, 2000. "Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 400-416, August.
    13. Stefan F. Schubert & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2006. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy Changes and Goods Market Adjustments," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 135-161, May.
    14. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-577, November.
    15. Bhandari, Jagdeep S., 1981. "The simple macroeconomics of an oil-dependent economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 333-354.
    16. Bhandari, Jagdeep S. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1984. "Materials price increases and aggregate adjustment in an open economy : A Stochastic Approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 151-182, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clausen, Volker & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Cyclical Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Ruhr Economic Papers 247, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Volker Clausen & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Cyclical Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Ruhr Economic Papers 0247, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. repec:zbw:rwirep:0247 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Teresa Sousa, 2011. "International macroeconomic interdependence and imports of oil in a small open economy," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 35-60, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; Monetary Policy; Open Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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