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Monetary Policy Rules and Oil Price Shocks

Author

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Kamps, Christophe

Abstract

This paper studies the relative performance of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of oil price shocks in a small open economy optimizing model. Our analysis shows that it is important to distinguish between alternative price indices (CPI, core CPI, and GDP deflator) when modeling the effects of oil price increases. This distinction has important implications for monetary policy as the central bank has to decide which inflation rate to target. Our results demonstrate that targeting the change in the GDP deflator is an inferior monetary policy strategy in the presence of oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierdzioch, Christian & Kamps, Christophe, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules and Oil Price Shocks," Kiel Working Papers 1090, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1090
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/17748/1/kap1090.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 74-91, Winter.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Finn, Mary G, 2000. "Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 400-416, August.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    7. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-577, November.
    8. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    9. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
    10. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    11. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    12. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2012. "How Do Nominal and Real Rigidities Interact? A Tale of the Second Best," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1455-1474, October.
    2. Alfredo Cuevas & Secil Topak, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Relative Price Shocks in South Africa and Other Inflation Targeters," IMF Working Papers 08/289, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Liu, Jing-Yu & Lin, Shih-Mo & Xia, Yan & Fan, Ying & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A financial CGE model analysis: Oil price shocks and monetary policy responses in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 534-543.
    4. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Rigidities and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Some Lessons from a New Keynesian Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 603, OECD Publishing.
    5. Roman E. Romero, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Oil-Producing Economies," Working Papers 1053, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Scheide, Joachim, 2002. "Euroland: der Aufschwung beginnt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2745, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2005. "Oil Price Shocks and Currency Denomination," Economics Working Papers 2005-10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy rules; Open economy; Oil price shocks; Price indices;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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