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Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Castillo

    (Central Bank of Peru & London School of Economics)

  • Carlos Montoro

    (Central Bank of Peru & London School of Economics)

  • Vicente Tuesta

    (Central Bank of Peru)

Abstract

In this paper we establish a link between the volatility of oil price shocks and a positive expected value of inflation in equilibrium (inflation premium). In doing so, we implement the perturbation method to solve up to second order a benchmark New Keynesian model with oil price shocks. In contrast with log linear approximations, the second order solution relaxes certainty equivalence providing a link between the volatility of shocks and inflation premium. First, we obtain analytical results for the determinants of the level of inflation premium. Thus, we find that the degree of convexity of both the marginal cost and the phillips curve is a key element in accounting for the existence of a positive inflation premium. We further show that the level of inflation premium might be potentially large even when a central bank implements an active monetary policy. Second, we evaluate numerically the second order solution of the model to explain the episode of high and persistent inflation observed in the US during the 70's. We find, in contrast with Clarida, Gali and Gertler (QJE, 2000), that even when there is no difference in the monetary policy rules between the pre-Volcker and post-Volcker periods, oil price shocks can generate high inflation levels during the 70's through a positive high level of inflation premium. As by product, our analysis shows that oil price shocks along with a distorted steady state can generate a time- varying endogenous trade-off between inflation and deviations of output from its efficient level. The previous trade-off, once uncertainty is taking into account, implies that a positive level of inflation premium is an optimal response to oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Macroeconomics 0512004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0512004
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    Cited by:

    1. Montoro, Carlos, 2012. "Oil Shocks And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 240-277, April.
    2. Jean-Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    3. Wetzstein, M. & Wetzstein, H., 2011. "Four myths surrounding U.S. biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4308-4312, July.
    4. Roman E. Romero, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Oil-Producing Economies," Working Papers 1053, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Zhang, Zibin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2008. "New relationships: ethanol, corn, and gasoline volatility," Risk, Infrastructure and Industry Evolution Conference, June 24-25, 2008, Berkeley, California 48718, Farm Foundation.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips Curve; Second Order Solution; Oil Price shocks; Endogenous Trade off;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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