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Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility

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  • Paul Castillo
  • Carlos Montoro
  • Vicente Tuesta

Abstract

This paper provides a fully micro-founded New Keynesian framework to study the interaction between oil price volatility, pricing behavior of firms and monetary policy. We show that when oil has low substitutability, firms find it optimal to charge higher relative prices as a premium in compensation for the risk that oil price volatility generates on their marginal costs. Overall, in general equilibrium, the interaction of the aforementioned mechanisms produces a positive relationship between oil price volatility and average inflation, which we denominate inflation premium. We characterize analytically this relationship by using the perturbation method to solve the rational expectations equilibrium of the model up to second order of accuracy. The solution implies that the inflation premium is higher when: a) oil has low substitutability, b) the Phillips Curve is convex, and c) the central bank puts higher weight on output fluctuations. We also provide some quantitative evidence showing that a calibrated model for the US with an estimated active Taylor rule produces a sizable inflation premium, similar to the levels observed in the US during the 70s.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," CEP Discussion Papers dp0782, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0782
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    Cited by:

    1. Montoro, Carlos, 2012. "Oil Shocks And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 240-277, April.
    2. Wetzstein, M. & Wetzstein, H., 2011. "Four myths surrounding U.S. biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4308-4312, July.
    3. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    4. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Roman E. Romero, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Oil-Producing Economies," Working Papers 1053, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. Zhang, Zibin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2008. "New relationships: ethanol, corn, and gasoline volatility," Risk, Infrastructure and Industry Evolution Conference, June 24-25, 2008, Berkeley, California 48718, Farm Foundation.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Second Order Solution; Oil Price Shocks; Endogenous Trade-off;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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