IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcpd/y2005iaprn10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil prices, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

Every U.S. recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: an oil price shock and an increase in the federal funds rate. Bernanke, Gertler, and Watson (1997,2004) investigated how much oil price shocks have contributed to output growth by asking the following counterfactual question: Empirically how much would we expect oil price increases to have contributed to output growth if the Fed had kept the rate constant instead of letting it increase? They concluded that, at most, half of the observed output declines can be attributed to oil price increases. Most were actually caused by funds rate increases. A problem with their empirical analysis, however, is that it implicitly assumes that the Fed can continually fool the public. That is, the funds rate is led constant even though the public actually expects the Fed to follow its historical policy rule of raising the funds rate in conjunction with oil price increases. We show that if the new policy rule were anticipated oil price increases would have had a much larger impact on output than suggested by Bernanke, Gertler, and Watsons analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2005. "Oil prices, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpd:y:2005:i:apr:n:10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/PolicyDis/No10Apr05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/scribd/?item_id=495643&filepath=/docs/historical/frbclev/pdp/frbclv_pdp_200504_010.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    2. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 5-33.
    3. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 2019. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 52(4), pages 537-571.
    4. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    6. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-286, April.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-291, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    2. Wu, Man-Hwa & Ni, Yen-Sen, 2011. "The effects of oil prices on inflation, interest rates and money," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4158-4164.
    3. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2006. "Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and Counterfactual Experiments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1945-1958, October.
    4. Hernandez Martinez, Fernando, 2009. "Efectos del incremento del precio del petróleo en la economía española: Análisis de cointegración y de la política monetaria mediante reglas de Taylor [Oil price shocks and the spanish economy: Coi," MPRA Paper 18056, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2006. "Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and Counterfactual Experiments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1945-1958, October.
    2. Delpachitra, Sarath & Hou, Keqiang & Cottrell, Simon, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks in the Canadian economy: A structural investigation on an oil-exporting economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
    4. Arnoud Stevens, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy response to endogenous oil price fluctuations," Working Paper Research 277, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 350, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Monetary Policy Trade-Offs with a Dominant Oil Producer," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 1-32, February.
    7. Jean-Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    8. Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.
    9. Wang, Peng-fei & Wen, Yi, 2006. "Another look at sticky prices and output persistence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2533-2552, December.
    10. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
    11. Hou, Keqiang & Mountain, Dean C. & Wu, Ting, 2016. "Oil price shocks and their transmission mechanism in an oil-exporting economy: A VAR analysis informed by a DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 21-49.
    12. Črt Lenarčič, 2018. "Oil Shocks and the Excise Duty Tax in a DSGE Model Setting," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 21(2), pages 49-69, November.
    13. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Cunado, Juncal & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Oil price-inflation pass-through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A wavelet coherency analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-55.
    14. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    15. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2018. "The zero lower bound and market spillovers: Evidence from the G7 and Norway," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 100-123.
    16. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    17. Winkler, Roland C. & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Anticipated Raw Materials Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Response - A New Keynesian Approach," Economics Working Papers 2006-19, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    18. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    19. Huang, Yu-Lieh, 2012. "Measuring business cycles: A temporal disaggregation model with regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 283-290.
    20. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpd:y:2005:i:apr:n:10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.