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Empirical analysis of policy interventions

  • Eric M. Leeper
  • Tao Zha

We construct linear projections of macro variables conditional on hypothetical paths of monetary policy, using as an example an identified VAR model. Hypothetical policies are restricted to ones where both the policy intervention and its impacts are consistent with history—otherwise the linear projections are likely to be unreliable. We use the approach to interpret Federal Reserve decisions, modeling their frequent reassessment in light of new information about the tradeoffs policymakers face. The interventions we consider matter: they can shift projected paths and probability distributions of macro variables in economically meaningful ways.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2002:i:mar:x:1
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  1. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1998. "Does monetary policy generate recessions?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
  5. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5h07k8vf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  6. John F. Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  8. David E. Altig & Charles T. Carlstrom & Kevin J. Lansing, 1994. "Computable general equilibrium models and monetary policy advice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1472-1505.
  9. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December.
  14. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  15. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
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  17. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "The Liquidity Effect and Long-Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 6608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macroeconomic model," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 83-112.
  20. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  22. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
  23. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
  24. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  25. Christopher A. Sims, 1998. "Role of interest rate policy in the generation and propagation of business cycles: what has changed since the '30s?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 121-175.
  26. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  27. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  28. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
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