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Lutz Kilian

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Personal Details

First Name:Lutz
Middle Name:
Last Name:Kilian
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pki110
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lkilian/
Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)
http://www.econ.lsa.umich.edu/

: (734) 764-2355
(734) 764-2769
611 S. Tappan Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
RePEc:edi:edumius (more details at EDIRC)
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  1. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "How the Tight Oil Boom Has Changed Oil and Gasoline Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 6380, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," CEPR Discussion Papers 11107, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Christiane Baumeister & Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6282, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," CEPR Discussion Papers 11035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Understanding the decline in the price of oil since June 2014," CFS Working Paper Series 501, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  8. John Coglianese & Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian & James H. Stock, 2015. "Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," NBER Working Papers 20980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2015. "Inside the crystal ball: New approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump," CFS Working Paper Series 500, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  10. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo & Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models," CFS Working Paper Series 498, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  11. Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," CEPR Discussion Papers 9823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  13. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2014. "Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil," CFS Working Paper Series 466, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  15. Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "The impact of the shale oil revolution on U.S. oil and gasoline prices," CFS Working Paper Series 499, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  16. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," Departmental Working Papers 1401, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  17. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/22, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  19. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2013. "Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis," Staff Working Papers 13-25, Bank of Canada.
  20. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Staff Working Papers 13-28, Bank of Canada.
  21. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices?," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  22. Fattouh, Bassam & Kilian, Lutz & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2012. "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 9118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Bodenstein, Martin & Guerrieri, Luca & Kilian, Lutz, 2012. "Monetary policy responses to oil price fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 8928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8419, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," CEPR Discussion Papers 8698, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 8174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel P, 2010. "The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 7753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Kilian, Lutz, 2010. "Oil price volatility: Origins and effects," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  34. Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Frequentist inference in weakly identified DSGE models," Working Papers 09-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  37. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," NBER Working Papers 14685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel P, 2009. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7471, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Hicks, Bruce & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas," NBER Working Papers 14030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2008. "Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 957, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  45. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Davis, Lucas W & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings: Lessons to be Learned from the US Residential Market for Natural Gas," CEPR Discussion Papers 6142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  48. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  49. Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2007. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," CEPR Discussion Papers 6031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  50. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  51. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  52. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  53. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  54. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  55. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  56. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  57. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Robert Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," NBER Working Papers 10855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bagging Time Series Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  61. Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2003. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  62. GONÇALVES, Silvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 2003-01, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  63. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  64. Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR( Infinite ) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-28, CIRANO.
  65. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  66. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Ivanov, Ventzislav & Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag-Order Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 2685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  68. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  69. Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 2389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  70. Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  71. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0401, Econometric Society.
  72. Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Measuring Predictability: Theory And Macroeconomic Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 2424, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  73. Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Biegean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  74. Kilian, L. & Bergean, I., 1999. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Papers 99-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  75. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 1999. "Quantifying the half-life of deviations from PPP: The role of economic priors," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  76. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," NBER Working Papers 6928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Mehmet Caner & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for Applied Work," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 511, Society for Computational Economics.
  78. Kilian, L. & Ohanian, L.E., 1999. "Unit Roots, Trend Breaks and Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Papers 99-02, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  79. Kilian, L., 1998. "Pitfalls in Constructing Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Asymptotically Pivotal Statistics," Papers 98-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  80. Kilian, L. & Caner, M., 1998. "Analyzing Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples Using Power Profiles," Papers 98-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  81. Lutz Kilian & Lee E. Ohanian, 1998. "Is there a trend break in U.S. GNP? A macroeconomic perspective," Staff Report 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  82. Kilian, L. & Chang, P.L., 1998. "How Reliable Are VAR Estimates of Responses to Monetary bPolicy Shocks?," Papers 98-06, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  83. Mehmet Caner & Lutz Kilian, 1998. "A Direct test of the Emerging Consensus about Long-Run PPP," Working Papers 9823, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  84. Kilian, L., 1997. "Exchange rates and Fundamentals: What Do We Learn From Long-Horizon Regressions?," Working Papers 401, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  85. Kilian, L. & Demiroglu, U., 1997. "Residual-Based Bootstrap Tests for Normality in Autoregressions," Papers 97-14, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  86. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 1996. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    repec:ecb:ecbwps:20030226 is not listed on IDEAS
  87. Lutz KILIAN & Simone MANGANELLI, "undated". "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," EcoMod2004 330600076, EcoMod.

    repec:ecb:ecbwps:20030214 is not listed on IDEAS
  1. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo & Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2017. "Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 144-155.
  2. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Killian, 2016. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 287-357.
  3. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
  4. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 421-432.
  5. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
  6. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 185-205.
  7. Leo Drollas & Vincent Kaminski & Lutz Kilian & Charles F. Mason & Apostolos Serletis & Adonis Yatchew, 2015. "Recent Evolutions of Oil and Commodity Prices," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, July.
  8. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
  9. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2015. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 338-351, July.
  10. Lutz Kilian, 2015. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 13-17, January.
  11. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 869-889, 08.
  12. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 33-43.
  13. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(1), pages 119-145, April.
  14. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
  15. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
  16. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747, October.
  17. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, 04.
  18. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, 08.
  19. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2013. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 78-93, January.
  20. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.
  21. Pablo Guerron‐Quintana & Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Frequentist inference in weakly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models: Acronyms must be spelled out in titles for indexing purposes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 4(2), pages 197-229, 07.
  22. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  23. Thomas F. Helbling & Vincent Kaminski & Lutz Kilian & Robert Levin, 2012. "Interviews with the experts on "Financial Speculation in the Oil Market and the Determinants of the Oil Price" (PART II)," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, January.
  24. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
  25. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
  26. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
  27. Lutz Kilian & Yun Jung Kim, 2011. "How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1460-1466, November.
  28. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.
  29. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(2), pages 212-241.
  30. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
  31. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 326-336, September.
  32. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 419-453, November.
  33. Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, 09.
  34. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
  35. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 87-112.
  36. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
  37. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
  38. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
  39. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
  40. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
  41. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03.
  42. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, 09.
  43. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
  44. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
  45. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "How Useful Is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of U.S. Consumer Price Inflation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 511-522, June.
  46. Edelstein Paul & Kilian Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
  47. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 156-159, April.
  48. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2007. "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 561-590, 03.
  49. Silvia Goncalves & Lutz Kilian, 2007. "Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(∞) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 609-641.
  50. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "NEW INTRODUCTION TO MULTIPLE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, by Helmut L tkepohl, Springer, 2005," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(05), pages 961-967, October.
  51. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
  52. Lutz Kilian, 2006. "Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(2), pages 21-27, 07.
  53. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
  54. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
  55. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
  56. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
  57. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "The Continuity Of The Limit Distribution In The Parameter Of Interest Is Not Essential For The Validity Of The Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 944-961, December.
  58. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
  59. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.
  60. Kilian, Lutz & Ohanian, Lee E., 2002. "Unit Roots, Trend Breaks, And Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 614-632, November.
  61. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR (∞) Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-332, May.
  62. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
  63. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
  64. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
  65. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
  66. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.
  67. Kilian, Lutz & Demiroglu, Ufuk, 2000. "Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 40-50, January.
  68. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.
  69. Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-273, July.
  70. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
  71. Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 652-660, November.
  72. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
  73. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  74. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29.
  75. Lee E. Ohanian & Alan C. Stockman & Lutz Kilian, 1994. "The effects of real and monetary shocks in a business cycle model with some sticky prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1209-1240.
  1. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  2. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  3. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 102 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-ENE: Energy Economics (73) 2001-07-23 2005-02-13 2005-08-13 2006-01-24 2007-01-02 2007-03-03 2007-03-17 2007-04-21 2007-05-26 2007-06-23 2007-09-02 2007-10-13 2007-11-10 2007-11-17 2008-12-07 2009-01-31 2009-02-28 2009-02-28 2009-02-28 2009-04-25 2009-05-02 2009-07-28 2009-11-27 2009-12-19 2011-03-05 2011-06-11 2011-06-11 2011-08-02 2011-10-15 2011-10-15 2011-12-19 2012-02-20 2012-04-03 2012-04-10 2012-05-29 2012-07-23 2012-09-09 2013-04-13 2013-06-16 2013-08-31 2013-09-24 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2013-11-29 2014-01-10 2014-05-09 2014-06-02 2014-06-02 2014-06-02 2014-06-28 2014-10-03 2014-12-13 2014-12-24 2014-12-24 2014-12-29 2015-01-19 2015-02-11 2015-02-11 2015-02-16 2015-02-28 2015-02-28 2015-03-05 2015-03-22 2016-02-12 2016-02-17 2016-02-29 2016-04-30 2017-01-15 2017-01-29 2017-01-29 2017-03-12 2017-03-12. Author is listed
  2. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (32) 2001-12-04 2004-11-22 2005-02-13 2005-08-13 2006-01-24 2006-09-23 2006-10-28 2007-01-02 2007-01-28 2007-04-21 2007-10-13 2007-11-17 2008-12-07 2009-02-28 2009-04-25 2009-05-02 2009-08-22 2009-12-19 2011-03-05 2012-04-10 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2014-01-10 2014-06-02 2014-06-28 2014-10-03 2014-12-24 2015-01-03 2015-02-11 2016-07-02 2017-01-29. Author is listed
  3. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (26) 1999-02-15 1999-07-12 2003-02-03 2003-02-03 2003-03-14 2003-04-27 2003-05-08 2003-06-04 2003-06-16 2003-07-13 2003-10-20 2004-06-13 2004-10-30 2005-12-09 2006-06-24 2009-04-25 2009-05-02 2009-08-22 2009-11-27 2011-06-11 2011-08-15 2013-11-22 2014-06-02 2015-01-03 2016-02-29 2016-07-02. Author is listed
  4. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (24) 2006-09-23 2006-10-28 2007-01-28 2007-05-26 2007-06-23 2007-09-02 2007-11-17 2008-12-07 2009-04-25 2009-05-02 2009-07-28 2009-12-19 2011-06-11 2011-06-11 2011-06-11 2011-08-02 2011-08-15 2011-10-15 2011-10-15 2011-12-19 2012-02-20 2012-04-10 2012-09-09 2013-06-16. Author is listed
  5. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (23) 2005-12-09 2011-06-11 2011-06-11 2011-08-02 2011-10-15 2011-10-15 2011-12-19 2012-02-20 2012-05-29 2012-07-23 2012-09-09 2013-06-16 2013-08-23 2013-08-31 2013-09-24 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2013-11-29 2014-05-09 2014-06-02 2014-12-13 2014-12-29 2015-02-11. Author is listed
  6. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (19) 1999-02-22 1999-07-12 2003-02-10 2003-03-17 2003-05-12 2003-06-09 2003-06-19 2003-07-16 2004-06-13 2005-12-09 2006-06-24 2008-12-07 2009-04-25 2009-08-22 2009-11-27 2011-06-11 2011-08-15 2014-03-08 2015-01-03. Author is listed
  7. NEP-CWA: Central & Western Asia (11) 2003-05-08 2011-06-11 2011-06-11 2011-08-02 2011-10-15 2011-10-15 2011-12-19 2012-02-20 2012-04-03 2012-04-10 2012-09-09. Author is listed
  8. NEP-RMG: Risk Management (8) 2003-02-03 2003-03-14 2003-04-27 2003-05-08 2003-07-13 2003-10-20 2007-03-17 2014-11-28. Author is listed
  9. NEP-HIS: Business, Economic & Financial History (7) 2000-02-21 2005-02-13 2005-08-13 2007-03-03 2012-04-03 2016-02-12 2016-02-17. Author is listed
  10. NEP-DGE: Dynamic General Equilibrium (6) 2009-08-22 2009-11-27 2015-01-03 2015-02-11 2016-02-29 2016-07-02. Author is listed
  11. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (6) 2000-02-21 2003-06-16 2003-07-13 2007-01-28 2009-12-19 2012-04-10. Author is listed
  12. NEP-BEC: Business Economics (5) 2005-08-13 2007-10-13 2011-08-02 2012-05-29 2012-07-23. Author is listed
  13. NEP-ORE: Operations Research (4) 2013-08-31 2013-09-24 2015-01-03 2015-02-11
  14. NEP-AGR: Agricultural Economics (3) 2013-11-22 2014-01-10 2014-06-02
  15. NEP-CMP: Computational Economics (3) 2003-04-27 2003-06-16 2003-07-13
  16. NEP-FMK: Financial Markets (3) 2006-06-24 2007-03-17 2007-11-10
  17. NEP-INT: International Trade (3) 2007-05-26 2007-06-23 2007-09-02
  18. NEP-MST: Market Microstructure (3) 2013-11-29 2014-05-09 2014-06-02
  19. NEP-REG: Regulation (3) 2007-03-03 2008-06-07 2017-01-29
  20. NEP-ENV: Environmental Economics (2) 2009-01-31 2009-02-28
  21. NEP-FDG: Financial Development & Growth (2) 2009-04-25 2017-01-29
  22. NEP-MKT: Marketing (2) 2016-02-12 2016-02-17
  23. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (2) 2014-10-03 2014-12-24
  24. NEP-ARA: MENA - Middle East & North Africa (1) 2016-02-29
  25. NEP-FIN: Finance (1) 2003-07-13
  26. NEP-IFN: International Finance (1) 2001-12-14
  27. NEP-MFD: Microfinance (1) 2015-03-05
  28. NEP-MIC: Microeconomics (1) 2008-06-07
  29. NEP-PBE: Public Economics (1) 2015-03-05
  30. NEP-PKE: Post Keynesian Economics (1) 2001-07-23
  31. NEP-TRE: Transport Economics (1) 2015-02-28
  32. NEP-URE: Urban & Real Estate Economics (1) 2008-06-07
This author is among the top 5% authors according to these criteria:
  1. Average Rank Score
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  3. Number of Distinct Works
  4. Number of Distinct Works, Weighted by Simple Impact Factor
  5. Number of Distinct Works, Weighted by Recursive Impact Factor
  6. Number of Distinct Works, Weighted by Number of Authors
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  9. Number of Citations
  10. Number of Citations, Discounted by Citation Age
  11. Number of Citations, Weighted by Simple Impact Factor
  12. Number of Citations, Weighted by Simple Impact Factor, Discounted by Citation Age
  13. Number of Citations, Weighted by Recursive Impact Factor
  14. Number of Citations, Weighted by Recursive Impact Factor, Discounted by Citation Age
  15. Number of Citations, Weighted by Number of Authors
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  19. Number of Citations, Weighted by Number of Authors and Recursive Impact Factors
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  21. h-index
  22. Number of Registered Citing Authors
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  24. Number of Journal Pages
  25. Number of Journal Pages, Weighted by Simple Impact Factor
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  27. Number of Journal Pages, Weighted by Number of Authors
  28. Number of Journal Pages, Weighted by Number of Authors and Simple Impact Factors
  29. Number of Journal Pages, Weighted by Number of Authors and Recursive Impact Factors
  30. Number of Abstract Views in RePEc Services over the past 12 months
  31. Number of Downloads through RePEc Services over the past 12 months
  32. Number of Abstract Views in RePEc Services over the past 12 months, Weighted by Number of Authors
  33. Number of Downloads through RePEc Services over the past 12 months, Weighted by Number of Authors
  34. Euclidian citation score
  35. Closeness measure in co-authorship network
  36. Betweenness measure in co-authorship network
  37. Breadth of citations across fields
  38. Wu-Index

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