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Quantifying the Risk of Deflation

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  • LUTZ KILIAN
  • SIMONE MANGANELLI

Abstract

We propose formal and quantitative measures of the risk that future inflation will be excessively high or low relative to the range preferred by a private sector agent. Unlike alternative measures of risk, our measures are designed to make explicit the dependence of risk measures on the private sector agent's preferences with respect to inflation. We illustrate our methodology by estimating the risks of deflation for the United States, Germany, and Japan for horizons of up to 2 years. The question of how large these risks are has been subject to considerable public debate. We find that, as of September 2002 when this question first arose, there was no evidence of substantial deflation risks for the United States and for Germany, contrary to some conjectures at the time. In contrast, there was evidence of substantial deflation risks in Japan.

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  • Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2007. "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 561-590, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:2-3:p:561-590
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0022-2879.2007.00036.x
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