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Measuring Volatility of Inflation in Pakistan

Author

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  • Nadia Saleem

    () (GC University, Lahore.)

Abstract

The available evidence in Pakistansuggests that inflation is a monetary phenomena. This paper examines the relationship between the determinants of inflation and its volatility by using monthly data for 1990:M1-2007:M5. The determinants of inflation are estimated by a VAR analysis, which shows that inflation, the interest rate and money supply move together. A VAR model assumes constant error variance. We relaxed this assumption by employing an ARCH/GARCH model and conclude that inflation is volatile in nature. For measuring the qualitative nature of the inflationary process we used an EGARCH model. It confirms that the time effect model is significant. It also suggests that in the first four months of the calendar year, the inflationary shock is negative and it can, therefore, hamper growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadia Saleem, 2008. "Measuring Volatility of Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 99-128, Jul-Dec.
  • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:13:y:2008:i:2:p:99-128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Madhavi Bokil & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 341-368.
    4. Fazal Husain & Tariq Mahmood, 1998. "Causality between Money and Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 1155-1161.
    5. Brunner, Allan D & Simon, David P, 1996. "Excess Returns and Risk at the Long End of the Treasury Market: An EGARCH-M Approach," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 443-457, Fall.
    6. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
    9. Elder, John, 2004. "Another Perspective on the Effects of Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 911-928, October.
    10. Ashfaque H. Khan & Mohammad Ali Qasim, 1996. "Inflation in Pakistan Revisited," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 747-759.
    11. Abdul Qayyum, 2006. "Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 203-212.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adnan Haider & Qazi Masood Ahmed & Zohaib Jawed, 2014. "Determinants of Energy Inflation in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 491-504.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Volatility; Pakistan; Money Supply; Interest Rate.;

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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