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Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan

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  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Pakisatn Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

This paper attempts to investigate the linkage between the excess money supply growth and inflation in Pakistan and to test the validity of the monetarist stance that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The results from the correlation analysis indicate that there is a positive association between money growth and inflation. The money supply growth at first-round affects real GDP growth and at the second round it affects inflation in Pakistan. The important finding from the analysis is that the excess money supply growth has been an important contributor to the rise in inflation in Pakistan during the study period, thus supporting the monetarist proposition that inflation in Pakistan is a monetary phenomenon. This may be due to the loose monetary policy adopted by the State Bank of Pakistan to show the high priority of the growth objective. The important policy implication is that inflation in Pakistan can be cured by a sufficiently tight monetary policy. The formulation of monetary policy must consider development in the real and financial sector and treat these sectors as constraints on the policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Qayyum, 2006. "Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 203-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:203-212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kiran Ijaz & Muhammad Zakaria & Bashir A. Fida, 2014. "Terms-of-Trade Volatility and Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 111-132, Jan-June.
    2. Khalid Mushtaq & Abdul Ghafoor & Abedullah & Farhan Ahmad, 2011. "Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 95-110, Jan-Jun.
    3. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.
    4. Saba Saleem & Khalil Ahmad, 2015. "Crude Oil Price and Inflation in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 4(1), pages 10-18, March.
    5. Mehak Moazam & M. Ali Kemal, 2016. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Oil Prices," Working Papers id:11507, eSocialSciences.
    6. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    7. Zafar, Raja Fawad & Qayyum, Abdul & Ghouri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation using Functional Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 67208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Alimi, R. Santos, 2012. "The Quantity Theory of Money and Its Long Run Implications: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 49598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Gill, Abid Rashid, 2007. "Impact of Supply of Money on Food and General Price Indices: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Nadia Saleem, 2008. "Measuring Volatility of Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 99-128, Jul-Dec.
    11. Omer, Muhammad, 2009. "Stability of money demand function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
    13. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2015. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 452-471, September.
    14. Ahad, Muhammad & Dar, Adeel Ahmad & Imran, Muhammad, 2017. "Does Financial Development Promote Industrial Production in Pakistan? Evidence from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach," MPRA Paper 76458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Roy, Ripon & Rahman, Md. Mokhlesur, 2014. "An empirical analysis of remittance – inflation relationship in Bangladesh: post-floating exchange rate scenario," MPRA Paper 55190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Siffat Mushtaq & Abdul Rashid & Abdul Qayyum, 2012. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 61-96.
    17. Sajid Amin Javed & Saud Ahmad Khan & Azad Haider & Farzana Shaheen, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 348-356.
    18. Nadeem Ul Haque & Musleh-ud Din & Lubna Hasan, 2007. "Research at PIDE: Key Messages," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2007:2, March.
    19. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    20. Forgha Godfrey NJIMANTED & Daniel AKUME & Emmanuel Mbella MUKETE, 2016. "The Impact of Key Monetary Variables on the Economic Growth of the CEMAC Zone," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 4(2), pages 54-67.
    21. Zahoor Hussain Javed & Muhammad Farooq & Maqsood Hussain & Abdur-Rehman Shezad & Safder Iqbal & Shama Akram, 2011. "Impact of Cost-Push and Monetary Factors on GDP Deflator: Empirical Evidence from the Economy of Pakistan," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(1), pages 57-63, March.
    22. Muhammad Waqas Chughtai & Muhammad Waqas Malik & Rashid Aftab, 2015. "Impact of Major Economic Variables on Economic Growth of Pakistan," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(2), pages 94-106, April.
    23. Yu, Xiaohua, 2014. "Monetary easing policy and long-run food prices: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-183.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Supply; Inflation; Growth; Quantity Theory; Monetory Policy; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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