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The size of informal economy in Pakistan

  • Arby, Muhammad Farooq
  • Malik, Muhammad Jahanzeb
  • Hanif, Muhammad Nadim

This paper estimates the size of informal economy in Pakistan by using monetary approach with some modifications, electricity consumption approach and MIMIC model. Under monetary approach, we take care of the issue of the stationarity of variables and use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model instead of simple OLS and add education as an additional factor affecting the size of informal economy along with some other technical improvements in the standard monetary models. The electricity consumption approach and MIMIC models are used for the first time in case of Pakistan. The results show that the informal economy in Pakistan has been about 30 percent of the total economy which declined considerably in 2000s. Currently, about 20 percent of the economic transactions are taking place in the informal sector.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22617.

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Date of creation: 07 May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22617
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  1. M. Ali Kemal, 2007. "A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan: Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:13, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  2. Hussain, M. Haider & Ahmed, Qazi Masood, 2006. "Estimating the Black Economy through Monetary Approach: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 8153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  4. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
  5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  6. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kaliberda, Aleksander, 1996. "Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies : a framework of analysis and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691, The World Bank.
  7. Hildegart Ahumada & Facundo Alvaredo & Alfredo Canavese, 2007. "The Monetary Method And The Size Of The Shadow Economy: A Critical Assessment," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(2), pages 363-371, 06.
  8. Angel Alanon & M. Gomez-Antonio, 2005. "Estimating the size of the shadow economy in Spain: a structural model with latent variables," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1011-1025.
  9. Mehnaz Ahmed & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 1995. "Estimation of the Black Economy of Pakistan through the Monetary Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 791-807.
  10. Hildegart Ahumada & Facundo Alvaredo & Alfredo Canavese, 2008. "The monetary method to measure the shadow economy: The forgotten problem of the initial conditions," Post-Print hal-00812857, HAL.
  11. Guillermo E. Perry & William F. Maloney & Omar S. Arias & Pablo Fajnzylber & Andrew D. Mason & Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi, 2007. "Informality : Exit and Exclusion," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6730, December.
  12. Arby, Muhammad Farooq, 2008. "Some Issues in the National Income Accounts of Pakistan (Rebasing, Quarterly and Provincial Accounts and Growth Accounting)," MPRA Paper 32048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Edgar L. Feige, 2004. "How Big IS the Irregular Economy?," Macroeconomics 0404005, EconWPA.
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