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Shadow Economy in Pakistan: Its Size and Interaction with Official Economy

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  • Mughal, Khurrum
  • Schneider, Friedrich

Abstract

Shadow economy encompasses wide array of activities that influence the official economy and government policies, either directly or indirectly. In this paper we estimate the shadow economy of Pakistan using currency demand approach with two econometric approached, i.e. one using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and two with Engel Granger two step approach. Additionally, we use a variant of currency demand approach where along with tax variable we include unemployment rate and intensity of government control as indicator variables of shadow economy, for the first time in case of Pakistan. The average shadow economy of Pakistan estimated from 1973-2015 as percentage of GDP is 26.41, 25.29, and 26.11 from Models 1, 2, and 3 respectively. Furthermore, we analyzed interaction between the official and shadow sector using ARDL model. Our results show a significantly increasing shadow economy in Pakistan with positive impact on the official sector in long run while negative impact in the short run. This again is a novelty in our paper where we observe short and long run impacts separately along with dynamic simulations to show Pakistan’s GDP per Capita in the absence of shadow economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mughal, Khurrum & Schneider, Friedrich, 2018. "Shadow Economy in Pakistan: Its Size and Interaction with Official Economy," MPRA Paper 87087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87087
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kemal, M. Ali, 2007. "Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan: Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy," MPRA Paper 2226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Q M Ahmed & M Haider Hussain, 2008. "Estimating the Black Economy through a Monetary Approach: A Case Study of Pakistan," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, March.
    3. Schneider Friedrich & Hametner Bettina, 2014. "The Shadow Economy in Colombia: Size and Effects on Economic Growth," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-33, April.
    4. Schneider Friedrich, 2010. "The Influence of Public Institutions on the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Investigation for OECD Countries," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 441-468, December.
    5. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2011. "Measuring the Shadow Economy with the Currency Demand Approach - A Reinterpretation of the methodology, with an application to Italy," Working papers 22, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    6. Tanzi, Vito, 1999. "Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 338-347, June.
    7. M. Ali Kemal & Ahmed Waqar Qasim, 2012. "Precise Estimates of the Unrecorded Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 505-516.
    8. Martin Halla & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2005. "Taxes and Benefits: Two Distinct Options to Cheat on the State?," Economics working papers 2005-05, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    9. Friedrich Schneider, 2006. "Shadow Economies and Corruption all over the World: What do we really Know?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1806, CESifo.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    11. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    12. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    13. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio Montenegro, 2010. "New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 443-461.
    14. Bruno S. Frey & Reto Jegen, 2001. "Motivation Crowding Theory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 589-611, December.
    15. Ahmed Gulzar & Novaira Junaid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "What is Hidden in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues, and Implications," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 665-704.
    16. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    17. Enste, Dominik & Schneider, Friedrich, 1998. "Increasing Shadow Economies all over the World - Fiction or Reality?," IZA Discussion Papers 26, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. M. Ali Kemal, 2003. "Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan A Critical Evaluation," PIDE-Working Papers 2003:184, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    19. Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh, 1995. "The Underground Economy: Estimation, and Economic and Policy Implications: The Case of Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 1995/101, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    21. Mehnaz Ahmed & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 1995. "Estimation of the Black Economy of Pakistan through the Monetary Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 791-807.
    22. Misbah Kiani & Adeel Ahmed & Khalid Zaman, 2015. "Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches for measuring underground economy of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 295-317, January.
    23. Bushra Yasmin & Hira Rauf, 2004. "Measuring the Underground Economy and its Impact on the Economy of Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 93-103, Jul-Dec.
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    Cited by:

    1. Omodero Cordelia Onyinyechi, 2019. "The Financial and Economic Implications of Underground Economy: The Nigerian Perspective," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Sciendo, vol. 8(2), pages 155-167, July.
    2. Friedrich Schneider & Mangirdas Morkunas & Erika Quendler, 2021. "Measuring the Immeasurable: The Evolution of the Size of Informal Economy in the Agricultural Sector in the EU-15 up to 2019," CESifo Working Paper Series 8937, CESifo.
    3. Ibrahim M. Awad & Wael Alazzeh, 2020. "Using currency demand to estimate the Palestine underground economy: An econometric analysis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Khurrum S. Mughal & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2020. "How Informal Sector Affects the Formal Economy in Pakistan? A Lesson for Developing Countries," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 7-21, June.
    5. Khurrum S. Mughal & Friedrich G. Schneider & Faheem Aslam & Alishba Tahir, 2021. "Money Multiplier Bias Due to Informal Sector: An Extension of the Existing Money Multiplier," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(2), pages 139-157, December.
    6. Hailin Chen & Friedrich Schneider & Qunli Sun, 2020. "Measuring the size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China over 1995–2016: The MIMIC approach," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 427-453, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow Economy; Pakistan; Impact of the official Sector; Currency Demand Approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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