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The Shadow Economy in Colombia: Size and Effect on Economic Growth

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  • Friedrich Schneider

Abstract

Using the currency demand approach, size and development of Colombia’s shadow economy are estimated over the period from 1980 to 2012. The results show a great extent of shadow economic activity varying over time between 27 and 56 % of GDP. The most important factors driving the shadow economy are indirect taxation and unemployment. Analyzing the interaction between shadow and official economy, the shadow economy has a negative effect on the official one. Average growth of real per capita GDP is 1.86% between 1980 and 2012, without shadow economy it would have been higher around 0.12 percentage points on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "The Shadow Economy in Colombia: Size and Effect on Economic Growth," Economics working papers 2013-19, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2013_19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Villa,Edgar & Misas,Martha A. & Loayza,Norman V., 2016. "Illicit activity and money laundering from an economic growth perspective : a model and an application to Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7578, The World Bank.
    2. Roberto Dell'Anno & Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 627-646, November.
    3. Gilbert Mbara & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2017. "Striking a balance: optimal tax policy with labor market duality," GRAPE Working Papers 16, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    4. Levoshko, Tamila, 2016. "Wie beeinflussen die politische Lage und FDI das Wirtschaftswachstum? Empirische Evidenz für die Ukraine und Polen," Working Papers 0615, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    5. Mughal, Khurrum & Schneider, Friedrich & Hayat, Zafar, 2018. "Shadow Economy in Pakistan: Its Size and Interaction with Official Economy," MPRA Paper 87812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Levoshko, Tamila, 2017. ""Pork-Barrel"-Politik und das regionale Wirtschaftswachstum. Empirische Evidenz für die Ukraine und Polen," Working Papers 0642, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    7. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi & Purnomo, Kuntarto, 2011. "Potensi Penerimaan Pajak Dari Underground Economy Di Indonesia
      [underground economy activities in Indonesia]
      ," MPRA Paper 65608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal & Jauhari B.Dahalan, 2015. "Estimating the Size of the Underground Economy in Saudi: Evidence from Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Based Currency Demand Approach," Abstract of Economic, Finance and Management Outlook, Conscientia Beam, vol. 3, pages 1-6.
    9. José Brambila Macias & Guido Cazzavillan, 2010. "Modeling the informal economy in Mexico:a structural equation approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(1), pages 345-365, September.
    10. Mughal, Khurrum & Schneider, Friedrich, 2018. "Shadow Economy in Pakistan: Its Size and Interaction with Official Economy," MPRA Paper 87087, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Colombian shadow economy; currency demand method; taxation; unemployment; interaction between the shadow and official economy;

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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