IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/revinw/v60y2014i4p747-772.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Guerino Ardizzi
  • Carmelo Petraglia
  • Massimiliano Piacenza
  • Gilberto Turati

Abstract

type="main"> We contribute to the debate on how to assess the size of the underground (or shadow) economy by proposing a reinterpretation of the traditional Currency Demand Approach (CDA) à la Tanzi. In particular, we introduce three main innovations. First, we take a direct measure of the value of cash transactions—the flow of cash withdrawn from bank accounts relative to total non-cash payments—as the dependent variable in the money demand equation. This allows us to avoid unrealistic assumptions on the velocity of money and the absence of any irregular transaction in a given year, overcoming two severe critiques to the traditional CDA. Second, in place of the tax burden level, usually intended as the main motivation for non-compliance, we include among the covariates two direct indicators of detected tax evasion. Finally, we control also for the role of illegal production considering crimes like drug dealing and prostitution, which—jointly with the shadow economy—contributes to the larger aggregate of the non-observed economy and represents a significant component of total cash payments. We propose then an application of this “modified CDA” to a panel of 91 Italian provinces for the years 2005–08.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 747-772, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i:4:p:747-772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roiw.12019
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    2. Wagstaff, Adam & van Doorslaer, Eddy & Watanabe, Naoko, 2003. "On decomposing the causes of health sector inequalities with an application to malnutrition inequalities in Vietnam," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 207-223, January.
    3. Trevor Breusch, 2005. "Australia's Cash Economy: Are the Estimates Credible?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 394-403, December.
    4. Roberta Zizza, 2002. "Metodologie di stima dell�economia sommersa: un�applicazione al caso italiano," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 463, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Ahumada, Hildegart & Alvaredo, Facundo & Canavese, Alfredo, 2008. "The monetary method to measure the shadow economy: The forgotten problem of the initial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 97-99, November.
    6. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, March.
    7. Andreas Buehn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 139-171, February.
    8. Andrea Brandolini & Luigi Cannari & Giovanni D’Alessio & Ivan Faiella, 2006. "Household Wealth Distribution in Italy in the 1990s," Chapters, in: Edward N. Wolff (ed.), International Perspectives on Household Wealth, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Axel Dreher & Christos Kotsogiannis & Steve McCorriston, 2009. "How do institutions affect corruption and the shadow economy?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(6), pages 773-796, December.
    10. Lippi, Francesco & Secchi, Alessandro, 2006. "Technological change and the demand for currency: An analysis with household data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Axel Dreher & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Corruption and the shadow economy: an empirical analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 215-238, July.
    12. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2004. "Dimensione e dinamica dell'economia sommersa: un approfondimento del "currency demand approach"," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 303-334.
    13. Phillip Cagan, 1958. "The Demand for Currency Relative to the Total Money Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 303-303.
    14. Loayza, Norman V. & Rigolini, Jamele, 2011. "Informal Employment: Safety Net or Growth Engine?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1503-1515, September.
    15. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sarda, 2011. "The size of the underground economy in Germany: a correction of the record and new evidence from the modified-cash-deposit-ratio approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 143-163, August.
    16. Friedrich Schneider & Ursula Windischbauer, 2008. "Money laundering: some facts," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 387-404, December.
    17. Fiess, Norbert M. & Fugazza, Marco & Maloney, William F., 2010. "Informal self-employment and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 211-226, March.
    18. Matthias Drehmann & Charles Goodhart, 2000. "Is Cash Becoming Technologically Outmoded Or Does it Remain Necessary to Facilitate," FMG Discussion Papers dp358, Financial Markets Group.
    19. Benno Torgler, 2003. "Tax Morale and Institutions," CREMA Working Paper Series 2003-09, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    20. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, February.
    21. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sardà, 2015. "Size and causes of the underground economy in Spain: a correction of the record and new evidence from the MCDR approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 403-429, April.
    22. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    23. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 1999. "Why Is There More Crime in Cities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 225-258, December.
    24. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
    25. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    26. Andreas Buehn & Alexander Karmann & Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Shadow Economy and Do-it-Yourself Activities: The German Case," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 165(4), pages 701-722, December.
    27. Hildegart Ahumada & Facundo Alvaredo & Alfredo Canavese, 2007. "The Monetary Method And The Size Of The Shadow Economy: A Critical Assessment," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(2), pages 363-371, June.
    28. Giles, David E A, 1999. "Measuring the Hidden Economy: Implications for Econometric Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 370-380, June.
    29. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sarda Pons, 2006. "Size and scope of the underground economy in Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(14), pages 1707-1713.
    30. Friedrich Schneider (ed.), 2011. "Handbook on the Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13432.
    31. Maurizio Bovi & Laura Castellucci, 2001. "Cosa sappiamo dell'economia sommersa in Italia al di là dei luoghi comuni? Alcune proposizioni empiricamente fondate," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2001(6).
    32. J. Ferwerda & I. Deleanu & B. Unger, 2010. "Revaluating the Tanzi-Model to Estimate the Underground Economy," Working Papers 10-04, Utrecht School of Economics.
    33. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2013. "L’economia non osservata fra evasione e crimine: una rivisitazione del Currency Demand Approach con una applicazione al contesto italiano," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 229-269, January-M.
    34. Malte Krueger & Charles Goodhart, 2001. "The Impact of Technology on Cash Usage," FMG Discussion Papers dp374, Financial Markets Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2011. "Measuring the Shadow Economy with the Currency Demand Approach - A Reinterpretation of the methodology, with an application to Italy," Working papers 22, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    2. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sarda, 2011. "The size of the underground economy in Germany: a correction of the record and new evidence from the modified-cash-deposit-ratio approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 143-163, August.
    3. Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 256-280, June.
    4. Kirchgässner Gebhard, 2017. "On Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 99-111, February.
    5. Schneider Friedrich & Buehn Andreas, 2017. "Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open questions," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, March.
    6. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Friedrich Schneider & Gilberto Turati, 2013. "Money Laundering as a Financial Sector Crime. A New Approach to Measurement, with an Application to Italy," Working papers 018, Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    7. Schneider, Friedrich, 2014. "The Shadow Economy and Shadow Labor Force: A Survey of Recent Developments," IZA Discussion Papers 8278, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Friedrich Schneider, 2014. "In the Shadow of the State – The Informal Economy and Informal Economy Labor Force," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 227-248, December.
    9. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sardà, 2015. "Size and causes of the underground economy in Spain: a correction of the record and new evidence from the MCDR approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 403-429, April.
    10. Psychoyios, Dimitrios & Missiou, Olympia & Dergiades, Theologos, 2021. "Energy based estimation of the shadow economy: The role of governance quality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 797-808.
    11. repec:ces:ifodic:v:14:y:2017:i:4:p:19267788 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Goel, Rajeev K. & Saunoris, James W. & Schneider, Friedrich, 2019. "Drivers of the underground economy for over a century: A long term look for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 95-106.
    13. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Schneider, Friedrich & Buehn, Andreas, 2012. "Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?," IZA Discussion Papers 6891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Friedrich Schneider, 2017. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economies of Highly-developed Countries: Selected New Results," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 44-53, February.
    16. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2015. "Analysis of the shadow economy in the Spanish regions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1049-1064.
    17. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2020. "Poverty and the shadow economy: The role of governmental institutions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 921-947, April.
    18. Friedrich Schneider, 2017. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economies of Highly-developed Countries: Selected New Results," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(4), pages 44-53, 02.
    19. Quintano, Claudio & Mazzocchi, Paolo, 2013. "The shadow economy beyond European public governance," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 650-670.
    20. Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "Size and Progression of the Shadow Economies of Turkey and Other OECD Countries from 2003 to 2013; Some New Facts," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 83-116, May.
    21. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984-2006," Working Papers 1303, Tulane University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i:4:p:747-772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iariwea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iariwea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.