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Dimensione e dinamica dell'economia sommersa: un approfondimento del "currency demand approach"

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  • Bruno Chiarini
  • Elisabetta Marzano

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the Italian underground economy using the currency demand approach. Exploiting the characteristics of non stationary time series, we set up a multivariate dynamic specification (VECM) to show how this method can produce results highly misleading, which need to be handled critically. Actually, leaving the standard framework of a single equation specification -up to now used in empirical literature- we demonstrate that the restrictions demanded by this method cause some troubles in identifying the excess of money demand. Besides, even though it is possible to generate time series coherent with Italian official estimates of the underground economy, they are very sensitive to the variable included and to the choice of starting period.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2004. "Dimensione e dinamica dell'economia sommersa: un approfondimento del "currency demand approach"," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 303-334.
  • Handle: RePEc:mul:je8794:doi:10.1429/18611:y:2004:i:3:p:303-334
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    1. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2007. "Structural and Cyclical Patterns of Underground Labour Input in Italy from 1980 to 2004," Discussion Papers 3_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    2. Busato; Francesco & Bruno Chiarini & Vincenzo di Maro, 2005. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2005-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Macias, Jose Brambila & Cazzavillan, Guido, 2009. "The dynamics of parallel economies. Measuring the informal sector in Mexico," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 189-199, September.
    4. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Friedrich Schneider, "undated". "Tax rates and Tax evasion: an Empirical Analysis of the Structural Aspects and Long-Run Characteristics in Italy," Working Papers wp2009-1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    5. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 747-772, December.
    6. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2006. "Market consumption and hidden consumption. A test for substitutability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 707-716.
    7. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Pasquale de Angelis & Elisabetta Marzano, 2005. "Capital Subsidies and the Underground Economy," Economics Working Papers 2005-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Elisabetta Marzano, 2004. "Dual Labour Market Theories And Irregular Jobs: Is There a Dualism Even in The Irregular Sector?," CELPE Discussion Papers 81, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
    9. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Pasquale de Angelis & Elisabetta Marzano, 2005. "Capital Subsidies and Underground Production," CELPE Discussion Papers 96, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
    10. Simona Monteleone, 2010. "Underground economy: Irregular employment in Italy from 1980 to 2009," Discussion Papers 8_2010, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.

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