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Tax rates and Tax evasion: an Empirical Analysis of the Structural Aspects and Long-Run Characteristics in Italy

  • Bruno Chiarini
  • Elisabetta Marzano
  • Friedrich Schneider

By using official time series of the Italian evaded VAT base (Ministry of Finance) for the period 1980-2004 we investigate empirically the long-run characteristics of tax evasion and the relationship with the tax burden. We focus on three important issues not analyzed so far. First, using different measures of aggregate economic activity as reference variables in estimating the average tax burden, we investigate the size and dynamics of the over-burden traceable back to tax evasion. Second, exploiting cointegration techniques, we quantify the elasticity between tax evasion and the average tax rate in Italy. We then comment on the complex dynamic interaction between tax burden and tax evasion, to ascertain whether in the Italian experience there is evidence for any "vicious circle" between them.

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Paper provided by Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance in its series Working Papers with number wp2009-1.

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Handle: RePEc:itt:wpaper:wp2009-1
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  1. Orviska, Marta & Caplanova, Anetta & Medved, Jozef & Hudson, John, 2006. "A cross-section approach to measuring the shadow economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 713-724, October.
  2. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
  3. Busato, Francesco & Chiarini, Bruno & Rey, Guido M., 2012. "Equilibrium implications of fiscal policy with tax evasion: A long run perspective," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 197-214.
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  6. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2004. "Dimensione E Dinamica Dell'Economia Sommersa: Un Approfondimento Del Currency Demand Approach," Working Papers 4_2004, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  7. Cowell, F A, 1990. "Tax Sheltering and the Cost of Evasion," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 231-43, January.
  8. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich G., 2006. "What Shapes Attitudes Toward Paying Taxes? Evidence from Multicultural European Countries," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt5q14k3wr, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
  9. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
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  11. Dell'Anno, Roberto, . "Estimating the Shadow Economy in Italy: a Structural Equation Approach," Economics Working Papers 2003-7, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  12. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini, 2004. "Market and underground activities in a two-sector dynamic equilibrium model," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 831-861, May.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
  14. Orviska, Marta & Hudson, John, 2003. "Tax evasion, civic duty and the law abiding citizen," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 83-102, March.
  15. Spanos,Aris, 1999. "Probability Theory and Statistical Inference," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424080.
  16. Alessandro Santoro, 2008. "Taxpayers’Choices Under Studi Di Settore:What Do We Know And How We Can Interpret It?," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 67(2), pages 161-184, July.
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