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Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: An Empirical Analysis of the Structural Aspects and Long-Run Characteristics in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Chiarini, Bruno

    () (University of Naples Parthenope)

  • Marzano, Elisabetta

    () (University of Naples Parthenope)

  • Schneider, Friedrich

    () (University of Linz)

Abstract

By using official time series of the Italian evaded VAT base (Ministry of Finance) for the period 1980-2004 we investigate empirically the long-run characteristics of tax evasion and the relationship with the tax burden. We focus on three important issues not analyzed so far. First, using different measures of aggregate economic activity as reference variables in estimating the average tax burden, we investigate the size and dynamics of the over-burden traceable back to tax evasion. Second, exploiting cointegration techniques, we quantify the elasticity between tax evasion and the average tax rate in Italy. We then comment on the complex dynamic interaction between tax burden and tax evasion, to ascertain whether in the Italian experience there is evidence for any “vicious circle” between them.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Schneider, Friedrich, 2008. "Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: An Empirical Analysis of the Structural Aspects and Long-Run Characteristics in Italy," IZA Discussion Papers 3447, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3447
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    1. Alessandro Santoro, 2008. "Taxpayers’Choices Under Studi Di Settore:What Do We Know And How We Can Interpret It?," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 67(2), pages 161-184, July.
    2. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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    4. Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "What Shapes Attitudes Toward Paying Taxes? Evidence from Multicultural European Countries," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 88(2), pages 443-470.
    5. Massimo Bordignon & Alberto Zanardi, 1997. "Tax Evasion in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 56(3-4), pages 169-210, December.
    6. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    7. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini, 2004. "Market and underground activities in a two-sector dynamic equilibrium model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(4), pages 831-861, May.
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    10. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2004. "Dimensione e dinamica dell'economia sommersa: un approfondimento del "currency demand approach"," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 303-334.
    11. Spanos,Aris, 1999. "Probability Theory and Statistical Inference," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424080.
    12. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
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    15. Dell'Anno, Roberto, "undated". "Estimating the Shadow Economy in Italy: a Structural Equation Approach," Economics Working Papers 2003-7, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Orviska, Marta & Caplanova, Anetta & Medved, Jozef & Hudson, John, 2006. "A cross-section approach to measuring the shadow economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 713-724, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Chiarini & Simona Monteleone, 2016. "Discretionary policy, strategic complementarity and tax evasion: a strategic analysis of the Italian audit mechanism," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(1), pages 99-117, April.
    2. Betty Annan & William Bekoe & Edward Nketiah-Amponsah, 2013. "Determinants of Tax Evasion in Ghana: 1970-2010," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(3), pages 97-121, December.
    3. repec:liu:liucej:v:15:y:2018:i:1:p:11-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:ovi:oviste:v:xvii:y:2017:i:2:p:505-509 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Pasquale De Angelis & Elisabetta Marzano, 2008. "Firm-oriented policies, tax cheating and perverse outcomes," Discussion Papers 10_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    effective tax rate; VAT evasion; tax evasion; apparent tax rate; VECM;

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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