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Tax rates and tax evasion: an empirical analysis of the long-run aspects in Italy

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  • Bruno Chiarini

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  • Elisabetta Marzano

    ()

  • Friedrich Schneider

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Abstract

We use official time series of the Italian evaded VAT base (Ministry of Finance) for the period 1980:1–2006:4 to investigate empirically the long-run characteristics of tax evasion and the relationship with the tax burden. Three hitherto unexplored issues are addressed. First, using different measures of aggregate economic activity as reference variables in estimating the average tax burden, we examine the size and dynamics of the overburden traceable back to tax evasion. Second, exploiting cointegration techniques, we quantify the elasticity between tax evasion and the average tax rate in Italy. We then comment on the complex dynamic interaction between the tax burden and tax evasion to ascertain whether in the Italian experience there is evidence for any “vicious circle” between them. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "Tax rates and tax evasion: an empirical analysis of the long-run aspects in Italy," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 273-293, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:ejlwec:v:35:y:2013:i:2:p:273-293
    DOI: 10.1007/s10657-011-9247-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Syed Hassan Raza & Syed Muddassir Abbas Naqvi, 2016. "Impact of Tax Evasion on Total Tax in Pakistan," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(11), pages 730-739, November.
    2. Marcel Ausloos & Roy Cerqueti & Tariq A. Mir, 2017. "Data science for assessing possible tax income manipulation: The case of Italy," Papers 1709.02129, arXiv.org.
    3. Antonio Gómez Gómez-Plana & Pedro Pascual Arzoz, 2011. "Fraude fiscal e IVA en España: incidencia en un modelo de equilibrio general," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 199(4), pages 9-52, December.
    4. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Giovanni Luca & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers and unreported production: evidence for Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 877-896, November.
    5. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2011. "Can we Rely upon Fiscal Policy Estimates in Countries with Unreported Production of 15 Per Cent (or more) of GDP?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3521, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. repec:nax:conyad:v:63:y:2018:i:2:p:23-24 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax evasion; VAT evasion; Effective tax rate; Apparent tax rate; VECM; H30; H26; O17; C32;

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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