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Fraude fiscal e IVA en España: incidencia en un modelo de equilibrio general

Listed author(s):
  • Antonio Gómez Gómez-Plana

    ()

    (Universidad Pública de Navarra)

  • Pedro Pascual Arzoz

    ()

    (Universidad Pública de Navarra)

El objetivo del trabajo es cuantificar y analizar los efectos que podrían derivarse de la reducción del fraude fiscal en España. Como herramienta de análisis se emplea un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado que incorpora diferentes escenarios de mejora en el cumplimiento fiscal y permite obtener las repercusiones, tanto para los diferentes sectores de actividad económica, como para los hogares. Para calcular las magnitudes de todos estos cambios, se utilizan diferentes escenarios. Implementando una regla de neutralidad recaudatoria, la simulación de estas mejoras en el cumplimiento fiscal y en la recaudación se logra aproximando los tipos efectivos reales a los tipos nominales del Impuesto sobre el Valor Anadido (IVA) y un descenso equivalente en los tipos efectivos de las cotizaciones sociales. También se considera un escenario Lumpsum y otro sin neutralidad recaudatoria. Los resultados del análisis de la reducción de la evasión e incidencia impositiva diferencial muestran que podría provocar efectos positivos en variables macroeconómicas relevantes. Así, con neutralidad recaudatoria, cuando se reduce la evasión en los sectores fraudulentos, por cada 1,4 puntos porcentuales que aumenten los tipos efectivos del IVA, el PIB crece 1,33%, el empleo aumenta 1,57%, los salarios reales y la rentas de capital suben en 0,76% y 0,06%, respectivamente, la recaudación aumentaría en torno a un 20%, y también se produce una mejora del bienestar del país del 0,48%. Además se infiere la conveniencia de plantear una estrategia de inspección fiscal intersectorialmente diferenciada, focalizándola en determinados sectores.

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Article provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.

Volume (Year): 199 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 9-52

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Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2011:v:199:i:4:p:9-52
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