IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v76y2023ics0164070423000204.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tax evasion policies and the demand for cash

Author

Listed:
  • Rainone, Edoardo

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between tax evasion and the demand for cash by studying the effects of two measures to fight evasion: accessing taxpayers’ bank data and imposing thresholds for cash payments. We study the effects of these policies in Italy, where visibility of bank data and cash thresholds were recently increased. We show that both significantly affected cash holdings, which grew by about 1.5 percent of the GDP. Using unique high frequency data on cash operations and exploiting regional heterogeneity in tax evasion propensity, we find that accessing bank data pushes regions with higher propensity to evade taxes to convert more deposits into cash. On the contrary, higher cash thresholds do not increase cash holdings more in these regions. We rationalize the findings with a simple model of tax evasion and payment choices, where cash and deposits have different degrees of privacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rainone, Edoardo, 2023. "Tax evasion policies and the demand for cash," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:76:y:2023:i:c:s0164070423000204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103520
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000204
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103520?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buiter, Willem H., 2009. "Negative nominal interest rates: Three ways to overcome the zero lower bound," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 213-238, December.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl & Danny Yagan, 2009. "Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 147-174, Fall.
    3. Dodd, Peter & Warner, Jerold B., 1983. "On corporate governance : A study of proxy contests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 401-438, April.
    4. Giammatteo, Michele & Iezzi, Stefano & Zizza, Roberta, 2022. "Pecunia olet. Cash usage and the underground economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 107-127.
    5. Humphrey, David, 2016. "Negative interest rates and the demand for cash," Journal of Payments Strategy & Systems, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 9(4), pages 280-289, January.
    6. Willem H. Buiter & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2003. "Overcoming the zero bound on nominal interest rates with negative interest on currency: gesell's solution," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 723-746, October.
    7. Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2022. "Cash thresholds, cash expenditure and tax evasion," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 387-403, December.
    8. Giovanni Immordino & Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2018. "Fighting Tax Evasion by Discouraging the Use of Cash?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 343-364, June.
    9. Franz Seitz & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Cash in Circulation and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Investigation for Euro Area Countries and Beyond," CESifo Working Paper Series 7143, CESifo.
    10. Slemrod, Joel, 2008. "Does It Matter Who Writes the Check to the Government? The Economics of Tax Remittance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 61(2), pages 251-275, June.
    11. Scotchmer, Suzanne & Slemrod, Joel, 1989. "Randomness in tax enforcement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-32, February.
    12. Philip Cagan, 1958. "The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply," NBER Chapters, in: The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply, pages 1-37, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Michael Carlos Best & Anne Brockmeyer & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Johannes Spinnewijn & Mazhar Waseem, 2015. "Production versus Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(6), pages 1311-1355.
    14. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    15. Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2016. "Why Can Modern Governments Tax So Much? An Agency Model of Firms as Fiscal Intermediaries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(330), pages 219-246, April.
    16. Charles M. Kahn, 2018. "Payment Systems and Privacy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(4).
    17. Donato Masciandaro, 1999. "Money Laundering: the Economics of Regulation," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 225-240, May.
    18. Paul Carrillo & Dina Pomeranz & Monica Singhal, 2017. "Dodging the Taxman: Firm Misreporting and Limits to Tax Enforcement," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 144-164, April.
    19. Alm, James & Jackson, Betty & McKee, Michael, 1992. "Institutional Uncertainty and Taxpayer Compliance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 1018-1026, September.
    20. Immordino, Giovanni & Russo, Francesco Flaviano, 2018. "Cashless payments and tax evasion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 36-43.
    21. repec:cep:stieop:41 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Harold James & Jean-Pierre Landau, 2019. "The Digitalization of Money," Working Papers 2019-13, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    23. Gordon, Roger & Li, Wei, 2009. "Tax structures in developing countries: Many puzzles and a possible explanation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 855-866, August.
    24. Joel Slemrod, 2007. "Cheating Ourselves: The Economics of Tax Evasion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 25-48, Winter.
    25. Richard Wright & Erdal Tekin & Volkan Topalli & Chandler McClellan & Timothy Dickinson & Richard Rosenfeld, 2017. "Less Cash, Less Crime: Evidence from the Electronic Benefit Transfer Program," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(2), pages 361-383.
    26. Slemrod, Joel & Blumenthal, Marsha & Christian, Charles, 2001. "Taxpayer response to an increased probability of audit: evidence from a controlled experiment in Minnesota," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 455-483, March.
    27. Garín, Julio & Lastrapes, William D. & Lester, Robert, 2021. "On the welfare effects of phasing out paper currency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    28. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Friedrich Schneider & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Money Laundering as a Crime in the Financial Sector: A New Approach to Quantitative Assessment, with an Application to Italy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1555-1590, December.
    29. Alessandro Acquisti & Curtis Taylor & Liad Wagman, 2016. "The Economics of Privacy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(2), pages 442-492, June.
    30. Jonathan Ashworth & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2020. "The Surprising Recovery of Currency Usage," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 239-277, June.
    31. Kane, Edward J, 1981. "Accelerating Inflation, Technological Innovation, and the Decreasing Effectiveness of Banking Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 355-367, May.
    32. Morten Linnemann Bech & Umar Faruqui & Frederik Ougaard & Cristina Picillo, 2018. "Payments are a-changin' but cash still rules," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    33. Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Costs and Benefits to Phasing out Paper Currency," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 445-456.
    34. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Caselli, Stefano & Cillo, Alessandra & Masciandaro, Donato & Rabitti, Giovanni, 2021. "Money, privacy, anonymity: What do experiments tell us?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    35. Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 1999. "Joint income-tax and VAT-chain evasion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 391-415, September.
    36. Schuh, Scott & Stavins, Joanna, 2010. "Why are (some) consumers (finally) writing fewer checks? The role of payment characteristics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1745-1758, August.
    37. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio Montenegro, 2010. "New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 443-461.
    38. Das, Satadru & Gadenne, Lucie & Nandi, Tushar & Warwick, Ross, 2023. "Does going cashless make you tax-rich? Evidence from India’s demonetization experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    39. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio E. Montenegro, 2011. "Shadow Economies All Over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    40. Slemrod, Joel & Collins, Brett & Hoopes, Jeffrey L. & Reck, Daniel & Sebastiani, Michael, 2017. "Does credit-card information reporting improve small-business tax compliance?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-19.
    41. Guercio, Diane Del & Tkac, Paula A., 2008. "Star Power: The Effect of Monrningstar Ratings on Mutual Fund Flow," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 907-936, December.
    42. Slemrod, Joel & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 2002. "Tax avoidance, evasion, and administration," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1423-1470, Elsevier.
    43. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    44. Edgar L. Feige, 1979. "How Big Is the Irregular Economy?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 5-13, November.
    45. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    46. Juin-jen Chang & Ching-chong Lai, 2004. "Collaborative tax evasion and social norms: why deterrence does not work," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 344-368, April.
    47. Todd Keister & Daniel Sanches, 2023. "Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currency?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 404-431.
    48. Clotfelter, Charles T, 1983. "Tax Evasion and Tax Rates: An Analysis of Individual Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 363-373, August.
    49. Andreas Buehn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 139-171, February.
    50. Srinivasan, T. N., 1973. "Tax evasion: A model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 339-346.
    51. Joel Slemrod, 2019. "Tax Compliance and Enforcement," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 904-954, December.
    52. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    53. Ardizzi, Guerino & De Franceschis, Pierpaolo & Giammatteo, Michele, 2018. "Cash payment anomalies and money laundering: An econometric analysis of Italian municipalities," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 105-121.
    54. Persson, Torsten & Besley, Tim, 2013. "Taxation and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 9307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    55. Parkash Chander, 1998. "A Stronger Measure of Risk Aversion and a General Characterization of Optimal Income Tax Enforcement," Economics Working Paper Archive 399, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    56. Antón, Arturo & Hernández-Trillo, Fausto & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2021. "(In)Effective tax enforcement and demand for cash," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    57. Friedrich Schneider & Konrad Raczkowski & Bogdan Mróz, 2015. "Shadow economy and tax evasion in the EU," Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(1), pages 34-51, January.
    58. Hendrickson, Joshua R. & Luther, William J., 2022. "Cash, crime, and cryptocurrencies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 200-207.
    59. Rodney J. Garratt & Maarten R. C. van Oordt, 2021. "Privacy as a Public Good: A Case for Electronic Cash," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(7), pages 2157-2180.
    60. Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Blessing or curse? Foreign and underground demand for euro notes," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 262-303.
    61. Das, S & Gadenne, L & Nandi, T & Warwick, R, 2022. "Does going cashless make you tax-rich? Evidence from India’s demonetization experiment," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 605, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    62. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 747-772, December.
    63. Nikolaos Artavanis & Adair Morse & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2016. "Measuring Income Tax Evasion Using Bank Credit: Evidence from Greece," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 739-798.
    64. Esselink, Henk & Gijsel, Lola Hernandez-van, 2017. "The use of cash by households in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 201, European Central Bank.
    65. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
    66. Sands, Peter & Weisman, Benjamin & Campbell, Haylea & Keatinge, Tom, 2017. "Limiting the Use of Cash for Big Purchases: Assessing the Case for Uniform Cash Thresholds," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162906, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    67. Parkash Chander & Louis L. Wilde, 1998. "A General Characterization of Optimal Income Tax Enforcement," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(1), pages 165-183.
    68. Alvarez, Fernando & Argente, David & Jimenez, Rafael & Lippi, Francesco, 2022. "Cash: A Blessing or a curse?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 85-128.
    69. Jobst, Clemens & Stix, Helmut, 2017. "Doomed to Disappear? The Surprising Return of Cash Across Time and Across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 12327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    70. Kohli, Ulrich, 1988. "A note on banknote characteristics and the demand for currency by denomination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 389-399, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simone Auer & Nicola Branzoli & Giuseppe Ferrero & Antonio Ilari & Francesco Palazzo & Edoardo Rainone, 2024. "CBDC and the banking system," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 829, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edoardo Rainone, 2022. "Currency demand at negative policy rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1359, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Antón, Arturo & Hernández-Trillo, Fausto & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2021. "(In)Effective tax enforcement and demand for cash," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2022. "Cash thresholds, cash expenditure and tax evasion," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 387-403, December.
    4. Rubolino, Enrico, 2023. "Does weak enforcement deter tax progressivity?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Colin C. Williams, 2023. "A Modern Guide to the Informal Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18668.
    6. Giammatteo, Michele & Iezzi, Stefano & Zizza, Roberta, 2022. "Pecunia olet. Cash usage and the underground economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 107-127.
    7. Dina Pomeranz & José Vila-Belda, 2019. "Taking State-Capacity Research to the Field: Insights from Collaborations with Tax Authorities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 755-781, August.
    8. Michele Manna, 2022. "The bonfire of banknotes," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 25, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Todd Kumler & Eric Verhoogen & Judith Frías, 2020. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 881-896, December.
    10. Immordino, Giovanni & Russo, Francesco Flaviano, 2018. "Cashless payments and tax evasion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 36-43.
    11. James Alm, 2019. "What Motivates Tax Compliance?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 353-388, April.
    12. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Guo, Jang-Ting & Hung, Fu-Sheng, 2020. "Tax evasion and financial development under asymmetric information in credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Clifford, Sarah & Mavrokonstantis, Panos, 2021. "Tax enforcement using a hybrid between self- and third-party reporting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    15. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Caselli, Stefano & Cillo, Alessandra & Masciandaro, Donato & Rabitti, Giovanni, 2021. "Money, privacy, anonymity: What do experiments tell us?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    16. Antonio Gómez Gómez-Plana & Pedro Pascual Arzoz, 2011. "Fraude fiscal e IVA en España: incidencia en un modelo de equilibrio general," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 199(4), pages 9-52, December.
    17. Li, Jianjun & Wang, Xuan & Wu, Yaping, 2020. "Can government improve tax compliance by adopting advanced information technology? Evidence from the Golden Tax Project III in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 384-397.
    18. Giovanni Immordino & Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2014. "Taxing Cash to Fight Collaborative Tax Evasion?," CSEF Working Papers 351, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    19. Montalvo, José G. & Piolatto, Amedeo & Raya, Josep, 2020. "Transaction-tax evasion in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Bachas, Pierre & Gadenne, Lucie & Jensen, Anders, 2020. "Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1277, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash demand; Tax evasion and avoidance; Economics of privacy; Monetary economics; Financial stability; Deposits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:76:y:2023:i:c:s0164070423000204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.