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Market Externalities of Tax Evasion

Author

Listed:
  • Irene Di Marzio
  • Sauro Mocetti
  • Enrico Rubolino
  • Enrico Rubolino

Abstract

This paper presents evidence of market externalities of tax evasion: firms' tax non-compliance distorts the outcomes of their competitors. Using novel administrative data on the universe of Italian firms, we compute a tax evasion proxy as the fraction of individual firms that manipulate their revenue to meet eligibility criteria for preferential tax regimes. Our empirical approach uses policy-induced changes in tax notches' size to predict the fraction of non-compliant firms in each market. We find that non-compliant firms lead to significant revenue and productivity losses for their competitors, who then pass on some of this burden to their workers. This unfair competition harms aggregate productivity, partly due to a worsening of allocative efficiency. Our findings show that cracking down on tax evasion not only increases tax revenue and promotes tax fairness, but can also enhance market efficiency by leveling the playing field.

Suggested Citation

  • Irene Di Marzio & Sauro Mocetti & Enrico Rubolino & Enrico Rubolino, 2025. "Market Externalities of Tax Evasion," CESifo Working Paper Series 11896, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11896
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax evasion; market competition; preferential tax regimes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection

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