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On Bunching and Identification of the Taxable Income Elasticity

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Listed:
  • Sören Blomquist
  • Whitney Newey
  • Anil Kumar
  • Che-Yuan Liang

Abstract

The taxable income elasticity is a key parameter for predicting the effect of tax reform or designing an income tax. Bunching at kinks and notches in a single budget set have been used to estimate the taxable income elasticity. We show that when the heterogeneity distribution is unrestricted the amount of bunching at a kink or a notch is not informative about the size of the taxable income elasticity, and neither is the entire distribution of taxable income for a convex budget set. Kinks do provide information about the size of the elasticity when a priori restrictions are placed on the heterogeneity distribution. They can identify the elasticity when the heterogeneity distribution is specified across the kink and provide bounds under restrictions on the heterogeneity distribution. We also show that variation in budget sets can identify the taxable income elasticity when the distribution of preferences is unrestricted and stable across budget sets. For nonparametric utility with general heterogeneity we show that kinks only provide elasticity information about individuals at the kink and we give bounds analogous to those for isoelastic utility. Identification becomes more difficult with optimization errors We show in examples how results are affected by optimization errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Sören Blomquist & Whitney Newey & Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang, 2017. "On Bunching and Identification of the Taxable Income Elasticity," NBER Working Papers 24136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24136
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    Cited by:

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    2. Juliana Londoño-Vélez & Javier Avila-Mahecha, 2024. "Behavioral Responses to Wealth Taxation: Evidence from Colombia," NBER Working Papers 32134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik, 2022. "Regression Discontinuity Designs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 821-851, August.
    4. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & Richard Rogerson, 2022. "Hours and Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(3), pages 1901-1962.
    5. Marinho Bertanha & Andrew H. McCallum & Nathan Seegert, 2021. "Better Bunching, Nicer Notching," Papers 2101.01170, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    6. Aronsson, Thomas & Jenderny, Katharina & Lanot, Gauthier, 2022. "The quality of the estimators of the ETI," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Myhre, Andreas, 2021. "Intensive and Extensive Margin Labor Supply Responses to Kinks in Disability Insurance Programs," MPRA Paper 109547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Massimo Anelli & Felix Koenig, 2021. "Willingness to Pay for Workplace Safety," CESifo Working Paper Series 9469, CESifo.
    9. Neryvia Pillay Bell, 2020. "Taxpayer responsiveness to taxation: Evidence from bunching at kink points of the South African income tax schedule," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-68, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Mavrokonstantis, Panos & Seibold, Arthur, 2022. "Bunching and Adjustment Costs: Evidence from Cypriot Tax Reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    11. Thomas Aronsson & Katharina Jenderny & Gauthier Lanot, 2024. "A maximum likelihood bunching estimator of the elasticity of taxable income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 200-216, January.
    12. Jeffrey L. Coles & Elena Patel & Nathan Seegert & Matthew Smith, 2022. "How Do Firms Respond to Corporate Taxes?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 965-1006, June.
    13. Sebastiaan Maes & Raghav Malhotra, 2023. "Robust Hicksian Welfare Analysis under Individual Heterogeneity," Papers 2303.01231, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    14. Marx, Benjamin M., 2018. "Dynamic Bunching Estimation with Panel Data," MPRA Paper 88647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. David Sturrock & Stefan Groot & Jan Möhlmann, 2022. "Wealth, gifts, and estate planning at the end of life," CPB Discussion Paper 442, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Massenz, Gabriella, 2023. "On the behavioral effects of tax policy," Other publications TiSEM eb44a9f7-b859-480d-b2e4-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Pablo Gutierrez Cubillos, 2022. "Dividend tax credits and the elasticity of taxable income: evidence from small businesses," Working Papers 630, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    18. Marius A. K. Ring & Thor Olav Thoresen, 2022. "Wealth Taxation and Charitable Giving," CESifo Working Paper Series 9700, CESifo.
    19. Escobar, Sebastian & Ohlsson, Henry & Selin, Håkan, 2023. "Giving to the children or the taxman?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    20. Tuomas Kosonen & Tuomas Matikka, 2023. "Discrete Labor Supply: Quasi-Experimental Evidence and Implications," Working Papers 9, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research.
    21. Daniel Reck & Arthur Seibold, 2023. "The Welfare Economics of Reference Dependence," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_450, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    22. Daniel M. Hungerman & Mark Ottoni-Wilhelm, 2021. "Impure Impact Giving: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1553-1614.
    23. Aronsson, Thomas & Jenderny, Katharina & Lanot, Gauthier, 2021. "Maximum Likelihood Bunching Estimators of the ETI," Umeå Economic Studies 987, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    24. Panos Mavrokonstantis & Arthur Seibold, 2022. "Bunching and Adjustment Costs: Evidence from Cypriot Tax Reforms," CESifo Working Paper Series 9773, CESifo.

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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