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Data science for assessing possible tax income manipulation: The case of Italy

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  • Marcel Ausloos
  • Roy Cerqueti
  • Tariq A. Mir

Abstract

This paper explores a real-world fundamental theme under a data science perspective. It specifically discusses whether fraud or manipulation can be observed in and from municipality income tax size distributions, through their aggregation from citizen fiscal reports. The study case pertains to official data obtained from the Italian Ministry of Economics and Finance over the period 2007-2011. All Italian (20) regions are considered. The considered data science approach concretizes in the adoption of the Benford first digit law as quantitative tool. Marked disparities are found, - for several regions, leading to unexpected "conclusions". The most eye browsing regions are not the expected ones according to classical imagination about Italy financial shadow matters.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Ausloos & Roy Cerqueti & Tariq A. Mir, 2017. "Data science for assessing possible tax income manipulation: The case of Italy," Papers 1709.02129, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1709.02129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Ausloos & Roy Cerqueti & Tariq A. Mir, 2018. "Data on the annual aggregated income taxes of the Italian municipalities over the quinquennium 2007-2011," Papers 1806.10935, arXiv.org.
    2. Jing Shi & Marcel Ausloos & Tingting Zhu, 2017. "Benford's law first significant digit and distribution distances for testing the reliability of financial reports in developing countries," Papers 1712.00131, arXiv.org.

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