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Tracking exchange rate management in Latin America

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  • Carrera, César

Abstract

One way to track exchange-rate deviations from its long-run value is to examine numerical patterns in exchange rates to see if those patterns appear to have been subjected to some degree of policy management. We apply Benford's Law to exchange rates in Latin American countries, computing and comparing the distribution of exchange-rate observed values with those of Benford's Law. For most cases we find that the exchange rate for the US dollar does not satisify Benford's Law, however this law holds when the euro is considered. This result may be explained by the fact that these countries are characterized for having different degrees of dollarization and intervention in the US dollar forex market while there is almost no policy intervention in the euro forex market. Our approach is an alternative view of how these characteristics play a role inducing deviations with respect to an implied equilibrium exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrera, César, 2015. "Tracking exchange rate management in Latin America," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 35-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:25:y:2015:i:c:p:35-41 DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2015.02.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Ausloos & Rosella Castellano & Roy Cerqueti, 2016. "Regularities and Discrepancies of Credit Default Swaps: a Data Science approach through Benford's Law," Papers 1603.01103, arXiv.org.
    2. Marcel Ausloos & Roy Cerqueti & Tariq A. Mir, 2017. "Data science for assessing possible tax income manipulation: The case of Italy," Papers 1709.02129, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Forex; Benford's Law; International reserves; FX intervention;

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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