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Behavioral influences in non-ferrous metals prices

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  • Cummins, Mark
  • Dowling, Michael
  • Lucey, Brian M.

Abstract

Recent research has identified the presence of behavioral influences on traders in predominantly professionally traded markets such as oil, gold, and foreign exchange. Previous research had largely confined behavioral-based investigations to equity markets due to an assumption that noise traders would drive any influence and these traders were mainly absent from the professionally traded markets. This paper extends this research to the non-ferrous metals markets and demonstrates similar influences on prices. It is shown that psychological price barriers, where there is predictable trading patterns around psychologically important price points, are important. Specifically, lead, zinc, and aluminium alloy show anomalous price reactions in the days particularly following a breach of a $1000 price point. There is also evidence presented of negative price clustering before key price barriers. Subperiod tests further indicate that the relevant psychological price point is dependent on average prices. Recognizing the multiple hypothesis testing nature of the study, Generalized Bonferroni corrections are implemented to provide a robust control for the possibility of data mining. This represents a first investigation of behavioral influences in non-ferrous metals prices, and suggests that these markets are not immune to trader biases influencing the setting of prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2015. "Behavioral influences in non-ferrous metals prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:9-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2015.03.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2023. "Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    3. Qu, Qiushi & Wang, Limao & Cao, Zhi & Zhong, Shuai & Mou, Chufu & Sun, Yanzhi & Xiong, Chenran, 2019. "Unfolding the price effects of non-ferrous industry chain on economic development: A case study of Yunnan province," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-20.
    4. Christos Alexakis & Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Vasileios Pappas, 2018. "A High-Frequency Analysis of Price Resolution and Pricing Barriers in Equities on the Adoption of a New Currency," Post-Print hal-01994666, HAL.
    5. Berk, Ales S. & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Psychological price barriers in frontier equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Christos Alexakis & Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Vasileios Pappas, 2018. "A high-frequency analysis of price resolution and pricing barriers in equities on the adoption of a new currency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(36), pages 3949-3965, August.
    7. Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Spillovers, integration and causality in LME non-ferrous metal markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Evidence of oil market price clustering during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keywords; Psychological barriers; Clustering; Non-ferrous metals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics

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