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Pricing of Non-ferrous Metals Futures on the London Metal Exchange

  • Clinton Watkins

    (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia)

The London Metal Exchange (LME) is the most important centre for spot and futures trading in the main industrially-used non-ferrous metals. In this paper, data on 3-month futures contracts for aluminium, aluminium alloy, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc are analysed. The risk premium hypothesis and the cost-of-carry model are the standard theoretical models for pricing futures contracts, but these two models have rarely been estimated within a unified framework for metals futures. Single equation versions of the risk premium hypothesis and the cost-of-carry model are nested within a more general model. If the spot price, futures price, interest rate and stock level variables contain stochastic trends, long run versions of the general model can be estimated within a cointegration framework. Various long run pricing models are estimated using daily LME price data for the period 1 February 1986 to 30 September 1998. Likelihood ratio tests are used to test restrictions on the general model to examine the validity of alternative nested specifications.

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File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2003/2003cf213.pdf
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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-213.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2003cf213
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