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How has volatility in metals markets changed?

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  • Watkins, Clinton
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

Within the industrial metals industry, there has been a great deal of interest surrounding trends in metals market volatility over time. This paper uses a rolling AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model to estimate and forecast the volatility processes for daily returns on the futures prices of two important non-ferrous metals, namely aluminium and copper. The rolling models are used to examine how the processes driving aluminium and copper returns volatility have evolved over a long sample. The variation over time seen in the volatility processes, as modelled by GARCH, suggest that, while volatility in returns has not necessarily increased, the conditional volatility process in metals markets is itself time-varying when analysed over a long horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Watkins, Clinton & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "How has volatility in metals markets changed?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 237-249.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:78:y:2008:i:2:p:237-249
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.01.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    2. Fabio Panetta & Paolo Angelini & Giuseppe Grande & Aviram Levy & Roberto Perli & Pinar Yesin & Stefan Gerlach & Srichander Ramaswamy & Michela Scatigna, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 2, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT MOMENT CONDITIONS FOR THE GARCH(r,s) AND ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH(r,s) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 722-729, June.
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    7. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 232-261, February.
    8. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
    9. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2006. "Pricing of non-ferrous metals futures on the London Metal Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 853-880.
    10. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Econometric modelling of non-ferrous metal prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 651-701, December.
    11. Li, W K & Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. " Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 245-269, July.
    12. Margaret E. Slade, 1991. "Market Structure, Marketing Method, and Price Instability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1309-1340.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Yuan Yuan & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Exchange Rate and Industrial Commodity Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies," CARF F-Series CARF-F-172, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    2. Li, Gang & Li, Yong, 2015. "Forecasting copper futures volatility under model uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 167-176.
    3. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:228-247 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hammoudeh, Shawkat M. & Yuan, Yuan & McAleer, Michael & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Precious metals-exchange rate volatility transmissions and hedging strategies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 633-647, October.
    5. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 207-218.
    6. repec:eee:glofin:v:36:y:2018:i:c:p:62-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Shawkat M.Hammoudeh & Yuan Yuan & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Industrial Commodity Volatility Transmissions, Asymmetries and Hedging Strategies," Working Papers in Economics 10/33, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    8. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:58-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Todorova, Neda & Worthington, Andrew & Souček, Michael, 2014. "Realized volatility spillovers in the non-ferrous metal futures market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 21-31.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2018. "The volatility effect on precious metals prices in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-34, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    11. Choi, Kyongwook & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2010. "Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4388-4399, August.
    12. Neda Todorova & Michael Soucek & Eduardo Roca, 2015. "Volatility spillovers from international commodity markets to the Australian equity market," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201505, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    13. repec:eee:finana:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:246-256 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Todorova, Neda, 2015. "The course of realized volatility in the LME non-ferrous metal market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-12.

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