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Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of Daily International Tourist Arrivals and Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

Abstract

TTourism is a major source of service receipts. The two leading tourism countries for Taiwan are Japan and USA. Daily data from 1/1/1990 to 31/12/2008 are used to model tourist arrivals from the world, USA and Japan to Taiwan, as well as their associated volatility. Inclusion of the exchange rate allows approximate daily price effects to be captured. The Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model is used to approximate long memory properties in daily exchange rates and international tourist arrivals, test whether alternative short and long run estimates of conditional volatility are sensitive to the approximate long memory in the conditional mean, examine asymmetry and leverage in volatility, and examine the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation. Asymmetry (though not leverage) is found for several alternative HAR models. For policy purposes, the empirical results suggest that an arbitrary choice of data frequency or spatial aggregation will not lead to robust findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of Daily International Tourist Arrivals and Exchange Rates," KIER Working Papers 712, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:712
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.
    2. Martins, Luís Filipe & Gan, Yi & Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 248-260.
    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," Working Papers in Economics 10/11, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    4. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Pat Obi & Robert L. Martin & Greg Chidi Obi, 2016. "Tourism: the untapped goldmine in the Gold Coast," Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, vol. 22(1), pages 17-28, May.
    6. Chang, C-L. & Hsu, S.-H. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Asymmetric Risk Impacts of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "On the relation between exchange rates and tourism demand: A nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    8. Wang, Yiwei & Sun, Zhaoyang & Feng, Chao & Wu, Ran & Yan, Jiale, 2025. "Unravelling the impact of clean energy on the tourism sector of the stock market: Evidence from quantile granger causality and wavelet coherence analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Is small beautiful? Size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates in tourism," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 519-534.
    10. Yuruixian Zhang & Wei Chong Choo & Yuhanis Abdul Aziz & Choy Leong Yee & Cheong Kin Wan & Jen Sim Ho, 2022. "Effects of Multiple Financial News Shocks on Tourism Demand Volatility Modelling and Forecasting," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-47, June.
    11. Manu Sharma & Geetilaxmi Mohapatra & A. K. Giri, 2022. "Examining the macro-determinants of tourist arrivals in India," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-18, August.
    12. Chih-Yuan Lin & Mateus Lee, 2020. "Taiwan’s opening policy to Chinese tourists and cross-strait relations: The impacts on inbound tourism into Taiwan," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 27-44, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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