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Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of Daily International Tourist Arrivals and Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

Abstract

TTourism is a major source of service receipts. The two leading tourism countries for Taiwan are Japan and USA. Daily data from 1/1/1990 to 31/12/2008 are used to model tourist arrivals from the world, USA and Japan to Taiwan, as well as their associated volatility. Inclusion of the exchange rate allows approximate daily price effects to be captured. The Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model is used to approximate long memory properties in daily exchange rates and international tourist arrivals, test whether alternative short and long run estimates of conditional volatility are sensitive to the approximate long memory in the conditional mean, examine asymmetry and leverage in volatility, and examine the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation. Asymmetry (though not leverage) is found for several alternative HAR models. For policy purposes, the empirical results suggest that an arbitrary choice of data frequency or spatial aggregation will not lead to robust findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of Daily International Tourist Arrivals and Exchange Rates," KIER Working Papers 712, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:712
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    File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP712.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
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    4. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael Mcaleer, 2009. "Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Voatility for Korea and Taiwan," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, pages 241-267.
    5. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT MOMENT CONDITIONS FOR THE GARCH(r,s) AND ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH(r,s) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 722-729, June.
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    10. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors," ISER Discussion Paper 0548, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Do We Really Need Both BEKK and DCC? A Tale of Two Covariance Models," CARF F-Series CARF-F-156, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.
    2. repec:eee:touman:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:248-260 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-735, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers from the US to Australia and China across the GFC," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2012-30, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    5. repec:eee:touman:v:48:y:2015:i:c:p:268-282 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Is small beautiful? Size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates in tourism," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 519-534.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International tourist arrivals; exchange rates; global financial crisis; GARCH; GJR; EGARCH; HAR; approximate long memory; temporal aggregation; spatial aggregation; daily effects; weekly effects; asymmetry; leverage.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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