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GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord

A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. This risk management strategy is GFC-robust in the sense that maintaining the same risk management strategies before, during and after a financial crisis would lead to comparatively low daily capital charges and violation penalties. The new method is illustrated by using the S&P500 index before, during and after the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria. The median VaR risk management strategy is GFC-robust as it provides stable results across different periods relative to other VaR forecasting models. The new strategy based on combined forecasts of single models is straightforward to incorporate into existing computer software packages that are used by banks and other financial institutions.

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File URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1063.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 10/63.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/63
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  8. Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009. "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-644, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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  10. Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2010. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord," KIER Working Papers 727, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  11. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Model Selection and Testing of Conditional and Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Papers in Economics 10/58, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
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  14. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model," ISER Discussion Paper 0549, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  15. Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-17.
  16. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT MOMENT CONDITIONS FOR THE GARCH(r,s) AND ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH(r,s) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 722-729, June.
  17. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors," ISER Discussion Paper 0548, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
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