IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

It is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or as combinations, to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous violations, whereby realised losses exceed the estimated VaR. Previous papers proposed a new approach to model selection for predicting VaR, consisting of combining alternative risk models, and comparing conservative and aggressive strategies for choosing between VaR models. This paper, using Bayesian and non- Bayesian combinations of models addresses the question of risk management of risk, namely VaR of VIX futures prices, and extends the approaches given in previous papers to examine how different risk management strategies performed during the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC). The use of time-varying weights using Bayesian methods, allows dynamic combinations of the different models to obtain a more accurate VaR forecasts than the estimates and forecasts that might be produced by a single model of risk. One of these dynamic combinations are endogenously determined by the pass performance in terms of daily capital charges of the individual models. This can improve the strategies to minimize daily capital charges, which is a central objective of ADIs. The empirical results suggest that an aggressive strategy of choosing the Supremum of single model forecasts, as compared with Bayesian and non-Bayesian combinations of models, is preferred to other alternatives, and is robust during the GFC.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/13218/1/1132.pdf
File Function: revised August 2011
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 2011-32.

as
in new window

Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1132
Note: The authors are most grateful for the helpful comments and suggestions of participants at the Kansai Econometrics Conference, Osaka, Japan, January 2011, and the International Conference on Risk Modelling and Management, Madrid, Spain, June 2011. For financial support, the second author acknowledges the National Science Council, Taiwan, the third and fifth authors acknowledge the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología and Comunidad de Madrid, Spain, and the fourth author wishes to thank the Australian Research Council, National Science Council, Taiwan, and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.
Contact details of provider: Phone: 913942604
Fax: 913942531
Web page: https://www.ucm.es/icae
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Postal: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Pabellón prefabricado, 1ª Planta, ala norte. Campus de Somosaguas, 28223 - POZUELO DE ALARCÓN (MADRID)
Web: https://www.ucm.es/fundamentos-analisis-economico2/documentos-de-trabajo-del-icae Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0918, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  2. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  3. McAleer, M.J. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2008. "A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value-at-risk," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors," ISER Discussion Paper 0548, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  5. Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Single-index and portfolio models for forecasting value-at-risk thresholds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 217-235.
  6. Wiphatthanananthakul, C. & McAleer, M.J., 2008. "A simple expected volatility (SEV) index," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-35, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  7. Chang, C-L. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & McAleer, M.J. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2011. "Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  8. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Model Selection and Testing of Conditional and Stochastic Volatility Models," KIER Working Papers 724, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  9. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-652, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  10. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT MOMENT CONDITIONS FOR THE GARCH(r,s) AND ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH(r,s) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 722-729, June.
  11. Michael McAleer & Chatayan Wiphatthanananthakul, 2010. "A Simple Expected Volatility (SEV) Index: Application to SET50 Index Options," Working Papers in Economics 10/15, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  12. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
  13. Jose A. Lopez, 1998. "Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 119-124.
  14. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
  15. Michael McAleer & Les Oxley, 2005. "The Ten Commandments for Academics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 823-826, December.
  16. Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2010. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord," KIER Working Papers 727, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  17. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  18. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  19. Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2011. "International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord," KIER Working Papers 757, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  20. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economic data," Working Papers 2012_16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  21. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," CORE Discussion Papers 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  22. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Investments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 196-200, 02.
  23. Casarin, Roberto & Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "Risk management of risk under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian approach to forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX futures," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 183-204.
  24. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
  25. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  26. Pérignon, Christophe & Deng, Zi Yin & Wang, Zhi Jun, 2008. "Do banks overstate their Value-at-Risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 783-794, May.
  27. Michael Mcaleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Forecasting value-at-risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS-GARCH) model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1-19.
  28. Li, W K & Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. " Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 245-69, July.
  29. Juan-�ngel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Value At Risk Under The Basel Ii Accord," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 850-855, December.
  30. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Águeda González Abad)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.