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Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Casarin

    () (University Ca’ Foscari of Venice and GRETA)

  • Stefano Grassi

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Francesco Ravazzolo

    () (Norges Bank and BI Norwegian Business School)

  • Herman K. van Dijk

    () (Erasmus University Rotterdam, VU University Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

Abstract

This paper presents the Matlab package DeCo (Density Combination) which is based on the paper by Billio et al. (2013) where a constructive Bayesian approach is presented for combining predictive densities originating from different models or other sources of information. The combination weights are time-varying and may depend on past predictive forecasting performances and other learning mechanisms. The core algorithm is the function DeCo which applies banks of parallel Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms to filter the time-varying combination weights. The DeCo procedure has been implemented both for standard CPU computing and for Graphical Process Unit (GPU) parallel computing. For the GPU implementation we use the Matlab parallel computing toolbox and show how to use General Purposes GPU computing almost effortless. This GPU implementation comes with a speed up of the execution time up to seventy times compared to a standard CPU Matlab implementation on a multicore CPU. We show the use of the package and the computational gain of the GPU version, through some simulation experiments and empirical applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," CREATES Research Papers 2013-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2013-09
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    File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/13/rp13_09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic predictive density combinations for large data sets in economics and finance," Working Paper 2015/12, Norges Bank.
    2. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
    3. Morozov, Sergei & Mathur, Sudhanshu, 2009. "Massively parallel computation using graphics processors with application to optimal experimentation in dynamic control," MPRA Paper 30298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2011.
    4. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
    5. Terui, Nobuhiko & van Dijk, Herman K., 2002. "Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 421-438.
    6. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
    7. Aldrich, Eric M. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Ronald Gallant, A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2011. "Tapping the supercomputer under your desk: Solving dynamic equilibrium models with graphics processors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 386-393, March.
    8. Mathur, Sudhanshu & Morozov, Sergei, 2009. "Massively Parallel Computation Using Graphics Processors with Application to Optimal Experimentation in Dynamic Control," MPRA Paper 16721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Sergei Morozov & Sudhanshu Mathur, 2012. "Massively Parallel Computation Using Graphics Processors with Application to Optimal Experimentation in Dynamic Control," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 151-182, August.
    10. Nicolas Chopin, 2002. "Central Limit Theorem for Sequential Monte Carlo Methods and its Applications to Bayesian Inference," Working Papers 2002-44, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    11. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility," Working Paper 1218, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. James P. LeSage, 1998. "ECONOMETRICS: MATLAB toolbox of econometrics functions," Statistical Software Components T961401, Boston College Department of Economics.
    13. Matt Dziubinski & Stefano Grassi, 2014. "Heterogeneous Computing in Economics: A Simplified Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 485-495, April.
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    15. Swann, Christopher A, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Parallel Computing: An Introduction to MPI," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 145-178, April.
    16. Casarin, Roberto & Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "Risk management of risk under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian approach to forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX futures," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 183-204.
    17. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
    18. Roberto Casarin & Jean-Michel Marin, 2007. "Online data processing: comparison of Bayesian regularized particle filters," Working Papers 0703, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    19. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    20. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
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    22. Michael Creel & William Goffe, 2008. "Multi-core CPUs, Clusters, and Grid Computing: A Tutorial," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 353-382, November.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic predictive density combinations for large data sets in economics and finance," Working Paper 2015/12, Norges Bank.
    2. Nalan Basturk & Stefano Grassi & Lennart Hoogerheide & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Time-varying Combinations of Bayesian Dynamic Models and Equity Momentum Strategies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-099/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:36:y:2018:i:1:p:131-145 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2018. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 131-145, January.
    5. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
    6. Roberto Casarin & Giulia Mantoan & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Bayesian Calibration of Generalized Pools of Predictive Distributions," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, March.
    7. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:17:d:65855 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Density Forecast Combination; Sequential Monte Carlo; Parallel Computing; GPU; Matlab;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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