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Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

  • Roberto Casarin
  • Chia-Lin Chang
  • Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín
  • Michael McAleer

    ()

    (University of Canterbury)

  • Teodosio Pérez Amaral

It is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or as combinations, to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous violations, whereby realised losses exceed the estimated VaR. McAleer et al. (2009) proposed a new approach to model selection for predicting VaR, consisting of combining alternative risk models, and comparing conservative and aggressive strategies for choosing between VaR models. This paper addresses the question of risk management of risk, namely VaR of VIX futures prices, and extends the approaches given in McAleer et al. (2009) and Chang et al. (2011) to examine how different risk management strategies performed during the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC). The empirical results suggest that an aggressive strategy of choosing the Supremum of single model forecasts, as compared with Bayesian and non-Bayesian combinations of models, is preferred to other alternatives, and is robust during the GFC. However, this strategy implies relatively high numbers of violations and accumulated losses, which are admissible under the Basel II Accord.

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File URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1126.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 11/26.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:11/26
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  2. Chang, C-L. & Jimenez-Martin, J-A. & McAleer, M.J. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2011. "Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2011. "International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord," Working Papers in Economics 11/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
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  10. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," CARF F-Series CARF-F-164, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  11. Casarin, R. & Chang, C-L. & Jimenez-Martin, J-A. & McAleer, M.J. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2011. "Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2011-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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  15. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
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