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Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

  • Roberto Casarin
  • Chia-Lin Chang
  • Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín
  • Michael McAleer

    ()

    (University of Canterbury)

  • Teodosio Pérez Amaral

It is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or as combinations, to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous violations, whereby realised losses exceed the estimated VaR. McAleer et al. (2009) proposed a new approach to model selection for predicting VaR, consisting of combining alternative risk models, and comparing conservative and aggressive strategies for choosing between VaR models. This paper addresses the question of risk management of risk, namely VaR of VIX futures prices, and extends the approaches given in McAleer et al. (2009) and Chang et al. (2011) to examine how different risk management strategies performed during the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC). The empirical results suggest that an aggressive strategy of choosing the Supremum of single model forecasts, as compared with Bayesian and non-Bayesian combinations of models, is preferred to other alternatives, and is robust during the GFC. However, this strategy implies relatively high numbers of violations and accumulated losses, which are admissible under the Basel II Accord.

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File URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1126.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 11/26.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:11/26
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  2. Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2010. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord," Working Papers in Economics 10/63, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  3. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0918, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
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  6. Roberto Casarin & Chia-Lin Chang & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011. "Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-32, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  7. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes," ISER Discussion Paper 0535, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  8. Chatayan Wiphatthanananthakul & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Simple Expected Volatility (SEV) Index: Application to SET50 Index Options," CARF F-Series CARF-F-173, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  9. Chia-Lin Chang & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2011. "Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," KIER Working Papers 761, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
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  17. Wiphatthanananthakul, C. & McAleer, M.J., 2008. "A simple expected volatility (SEV) index," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-35, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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  22. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors," ISER Discussion Paper 0548, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
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