IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1501.02276.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Golden Target: Analyzing the Tracking Performance of Leveraged Gold ETFs

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Leung
  • Brian Ward

Abstract

This paper studies the empirical tracking performance of leveraged ETFs on gold, and their price relationships with gold spot and futures. For tracking the gold spot, we find that our optimized portfolios with short-term gold futures are highly effective in replicating prices. The market-traded gold ETF (GLD) also exhibits a similar tracking performance. However, we show that leveraged gold ETFs tend to underperform their corresponding leveraged benchmark. Moreover, the underperformance worsens over a longer holding period. In contrast, we illustrate that a dynamic portfolio of gold futures tracks significantly better than various static portfolios. The dynamic portfolio also consistently outperforms the respective market-traded LETFs for different leverage ratios over multiple years.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2015. "The Golden Target: Analyzing the Tracking Performance of Leveraged Gold ETFs," Papers 1501.02276, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1501.02276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1501.02276
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    2. Dipak Ghosh & Eric Levin & Robert E Wright & The Centre for Economic Policy Research, "undated". "Gold as an Inflation Hedge?," Working Papers Series 96/10, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    3. Casarin, Roberto & Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "Risk management of risk under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian approach to forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX futures," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 183-204.
    4. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    5. Chia-Lin Chang & Juan-à ngel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2011. "Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," KIER Working Papers 761, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Kevin Guo & Tim Leung, 2016. "Understanding the Tracking Errors of Commodity Leveraged ETFs," Papers 1610.09404, arXiv.org.
    7. Alexander, C. & Barbosa, A., 2008. "Hedging index exchange traded funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 326-337, February.
    8. Smales, Lee A., 2015. "Asymmetric volatility response to news sentiment in gold futures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 161-172.
    9. K. Triantafyllopoulos & G. Montana, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 23-49, April.
    10. Stoyu Ivanov, 2013. "The influence of ETFs on the price discovery of gold, silver and oil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(3), pages 453-462, July.
    11. Narat Charupat & Peter Miu, 2014. "A New Method to Measure the Performance of Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 735-763, November.
    12. Tim Leung & Ronnie Sircar, 2015. "Implied Volatility of Leveraged ETF Options," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 162-188, April.
    13. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2015. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading With Transaction Costs And Stop-Loss Exit," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-31.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiaodong Chen & Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2022. "Constrained dynamic futures portfolios with stochastic basis," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-33, March.
    2. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2019. "A stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Nian Yao, 2018. "Optimal leverage ratio estimate of various models for leveraged ETFs to exceed a target: Probability estimates of large deviations," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-37, June.
    4. Gregor Dorfleitner & Anna Gerl & Johannes Gerer, 2018. "The pricing efficiency of exchange-traded commodities," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 255-284, January.
    5. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2020. "Tracking VIX with VIX Futures: Portfolio Construction and Performance," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John B Guerard & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF APPLIED INVESTMENT RESEARCH, chapter 21, pages 557-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Kevin Guo & Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2019. "How to mine gold without digging," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-30, March.
    7. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2018. "Dynamic Index Tracking and Risk Exposure Control Using Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 180-212, March.
    8. Guo, Kevin & Leung, Tim, 2017. "Understanding the non-convergence of agricultural futures via stochastic storage costs and timing options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 32-49.
    9. Subhashis Nandy, 2016. "Empirical Observations on the Tracking Errors and the Risk-Adjusted Returns of REIT-Based Exchange Traded Funds," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(9), pages 1-63, August.
    10. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2019. "Optimal dynamic basis trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 307-335, September.
    11. Tim Leung & Hyungbin Park, 2017. "LONG-TERM GROWTH RATE OF EXPECTED UTILITY FOR LEVERAGED ETFs: MARTINGALE EXTRACTION APPROACH," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(06), pages 1-33, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin Guo & Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2019. "How to mine gold without digging," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Font-Ferrer, Alejandro & Sorrosal-Forradellas, M. Teresa & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2019. "An information theory perspective on the informational efficiency of gold price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Kausik Gangopadhyay & Abhishek Jangir & Rudra Sensarma, 2014. "Forecasting the price of gold: An error correction approach," Working papers 155, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & Gkillas, Konstantinos, 2020. "Gold-oil dependence dynamics and the role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from a Markov-switching time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O’Connor, 2013. "Do bubbles occur in the gold price? An investigation of gold lease rates and Markov Switching models," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(3), pages 53-63, September.
    6. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.
    7. Aboura Sofiane & Chevallier Julien & Jammazi Rania & Tiwari Aviral Kumar, 2016. "The place of gold in the cross-market dependencies," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 567-586, December.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Can gold hedge and preserve value when the US dollar depreciates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 168-173.
    9. Jin, Jiayu & Han, Liyan & Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2020. "The hedging effectiveness of global sectors in emerging and developed stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 92-117.
    10. Elgammal, Mohammed M. & Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Alshami, Abdullah, 2021. "Price and volatility spillovers between global equity, gold, and energy markets prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Akihiro Omura & Neda Todorova, 2019. "The quantile dependence of commodity futures markets on news sentiment," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 818-837, July.
    12. Ahmad Alrazni Alshammari, Basheer Altarturi, Buerhan Saiti, Latifah Munassar, 2020. "The impact of exchange rate, oil price and gold price on the Kuwaiti stock market: a wavelet analysis," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 17(1), pages 31-54, June.
    13. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "The risk premium of gold," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-159.
    14. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Exploring the Driving Forces of the Bitcoin Exchange Rate Dynamics: An EGARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 89445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
    16. Sobti, Neharika & Sehgal, Sanjay & Ilango, Balakrishnan, 2021. "How do macroeconomic news surprises affect round-the-clock price discovery of gold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Beckmann, Joscha & Berger, Theo & Czudaj, Robert, 2015. "Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-24.
    18. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    19. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Naveed Raza & David Roubaud & Jose Arreola Hernandez & Stelios Bekiros, 2019. "Gold as Safe Haven for G-7 Stocks and Bonds: A Revisit," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(4), pages 885-912, December.
    20. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1501.02276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.