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Optimal dynamic basis trading

Author

Listed:
  • Bahman Angoshtari

    (University of Washington)

  • Tim Leung

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

We study the problem of dynamically trading a futures contract and its underlying asset under a stochastic basis model. The basis evolution is modeled by a stopped scaled Brownian bridge to account for non-convergence of the basis at maturity. The optimal trading strategies are determined from a utility maximization problem under hyperbolic absolute risk aversion risk preferences. By analyzing the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, we derive the exact conditions under which the equation admits a solution and solve the utility maximization explicitly. A series of numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal strategies and examine the effects of model parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2019. "Optimal dynamic basis trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 307-335, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:15:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10436-019-00348-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-019-00348-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2019. "Optimal dynamic futures portfolio in a regime-switching market framework," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2020. "Optimal trading of a basket of futures contracts," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 253-280, June.
    3. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2019. "A stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Abel Azze & Bernardo D'Auria & Eduardo Garc'ia-Portugu'es, 2022. "Optimal stopping of Gauss-Markov bridges," Papers 2211.05835, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    5. Jun Deng & Huifeng Pan & Shuyu Zhang & Bin Zou, 2021. "Optimal Bitcoin trading with inverse futures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 304(1), pages 139-163, September.
    6. Xiaodong Chen & Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2022. "Constrained dynamic futures portfolios with stochastic basis," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-33, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures; Stochastic basis; Cash and carry; Scaled Brownian bridge; Risk aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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