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Non-Convergence in Domestic Commodity Futures Markets: Causes, Consequences, and Remedies

Author

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  • Adjemian, Michael K.
  • Garcia, Philip
  • Irwin, Scott
  • Smith, Aaron

Abstract

During most of 2005-10, the price of expiring U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat futures contracts settled much higher than corresponding delivery market cash prices. Because futures contracts at expiration are commonly thought to be equivalent to cash grain, this commodity price non-convergence appeared inconsistent with the law of one price. In addition, sustained non-convergence concerns market participants, exchanges, and policymakers because it can make hedging less effective, send confusing signals to the market, threaten the viability of a contract, and ultimately lead to a misallocation of agricultural resources. This report summarizes prominent theories that have been offered to explain non-convergence, including a new model that explains how the structure of a competitive delivery market can generate a positive expiring basis. The data support this delivery market theory over alternative explanations. Finally, we discuss various policy levers that have been offered to address non-convergence, as well as their likely impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Adjemian, Michael K. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott & Smith, Aaron, 2013. "Non-Convergence in Domestic Commodity Futures Markets: Causes, Consequences, and Remedies," Economic Information Bulletin 155381, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersib:155381
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.155381
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Goswami, Alankrita & Karali, Berna & Adjemian, Michael K., 2023. "Hedging with futures during nonconvergence in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    2. Sophie van Huellen, 2018. "How financial investment distorts food prices: evidence from U.S. grain markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 171-181, March.
    3. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Farhangdoost, Sara & Hoffman, Linwood A. & Adam, Brian D., 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. season-average farm price of corn: Derivation of an alternative futures-based forecasting model," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    4. Goswami, Alankrita & Adjemian, Michael K. & Karali, Berna, 2022. "The impact of futures contract storage rate policy on convergence expectations in domestic commodity markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Bekkerman, Anton & Brester, Gary W. & Taylor, Mykel, 2016. "Forecasting a Moving Target: The Roles of Quality and Timing for Determining Northern U.S. Wheat Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(01), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Zhige Wu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink & Getu Hailu, 2018. "Asymmetric spot‐futures price adjustments in grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1549-1564, December.
    7. Jean Loic Begue Turon & Jean Cordier & Sandrine Hallot & Jean Baptiste Plasmans & David Weiller, 2016. "Utilisation des marchés à terme par les acteurs commerciaux exposés à la volatilité des marchés de grains et du sucre," Working Papers hal-02068381, HAL.
    8. repec:ags:aaea22:343733 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Choe, Kyoungin & Goodwin, Barry K., 2024. "Convergence Bias in Lean Hog Futures: Are Hog Prices Reliable?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343733, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Karali, Berna & McNew, Kevin & Thurman, Walter N., . "Price Discovery and the Basis Effects of Failures to Converge in Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(01).
    11. Guo, Kevin & Leung, Tim, 2017. "Understanding the non-convergence of agricultural futures via stochastic storage costs and timing options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 32-49.
    12. Gianfranco Giulioni & Edmondo Di Giuseppe & Piero Toscano & Francesco Miglietta & Massimiliano Pasqui, 2019. "A Novel Computational Model of the Wheat Global Market with an Application to the 2010 Russian Federation Case," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 22(3), pages 1-4.
    13. Domenica Tropeano, 2016. "Hedging, Arbitrage, and the Financialization of Commodities Markets," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 241-256, July.
    14. Hayhurst, Emma & Brorsen, B. Wade, . "Resilience of Grain Storage Markets to Upheaval in Futures Markets," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 4(2).
    15. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2019. "Optimal dynamic basis trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 307-335, September.
    16. O'Brien, Daniel M. & Barnaby, Glenn A. & Yeager, Elizabeth, "undated". "Causes and Solutions to Non-Convergence in CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259945, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Adjemian, Michael K. & Marshall, Kandice K. & Hubbs, Todd & Penn, Jerrod, 2016. "Decomposing Local Prices into Hedgeable and Unhedgeable Shocks," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235874, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Adjemian, Michael K. & Janzen, Joseph & Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement," Economic Research Report 167369, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Ahmed, Osama, 2021. "Do future markets protect the spot markets in developing countries? The case of the Egyptian wheat market," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(5), pages 65-83.
    20. Adjemian, Michael & Brorsen, B. Wade & Hahn, William & Saitone, Tina L. & Sexton, Richard J., 2016. "Thinning Markets in U.S. Agriculture," Economic Information Bulletin 232928, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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