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Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement

Author

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  • Adjemian, Michael K.
  • Janzen, Joseph
  • Carter, Colin A.
  • Smith, Aaron

Abstract

In 2008, wheat futures prices spiked and then crashed along with prices for other agricultural and nonagricultural commodities. Market observers offered several theories to explain this common movement, or comovement, in prices, and have proposed policies to address the perceived problem of excessive price volatility. The design of an appropriate policy response would benefit from a better understanding of the cause of the observed price movements. This study uses an econometric model to decompose observed wheat prices into a set of economic factors and measure the relative contribution of each factor to observed price changes. Findings show that market-specific shocks related to supply and demand for wheat were the dominant cause of price spikes in the three U.S. wheat futures markets. Fluctuations in the global macroeconomy associated with broadbased demand shocks were relatively less significant for wheat than for other commodities like crude oil and corn. Finally, little evidence suggests commodity index trading contributed to recent price spikes.

Suggested Citation

  • Adjemian, Michael K. & Janzen, Joseph & Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement," Economic Research Report 167369, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:167369
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.167369
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    Cited by:

    1. Ana I. Sanjuán-López & Philip J. Dawson, 2017. "Volatility Effects of Index Trading and Spillovers on US Agricultural Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 822-838, September.
    2. Yuliia Zolotnytska & Stanisław Kowalczyk & Roman Sobiecki & Vitaliy Krupin & Julian Krzyżanowski & Aleksandra Perkowska & Joanna Żurakowska-Sawa, 2025. "Drivers of Global Wheat and Corn Price Dynamics: Implications for Sustainable Food Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Valenti, Daniele & Bertoni, Danilo & Cavicchioli, Davide & Olper, Alessandro, "undated". "Understanding the role of supply and demand factors in the global wheat market: a Structural Vector Autoregressive approach," FEEM Working Papers 338780, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Covindassamy, Genevre & Robe, Michel A. & Wallen, Jonathan, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Rude, James & An, Henry, 2015. "Explaining grain and oilseed price volatility: The role of export restrictions," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 83-92.
    6. Mert Demir & Terrence F. Martell & Lene Skou, 2025. "Agricultural Futures Contracts as Part of a Sustainable Investment Strategy: Issues and Opportunities," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    8. Ubilava, David, 2017. "The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 490-502.
    9. Stefan Ederer & Christine Heumesser & Cornelia Staritz, 2016. "Financialization and commodity prices -- an empirical analysis for coffee, cotton, wheat and oil," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 462-487, July.
    10. Olga Bondarenko, 2025. "Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices," IHEID Working Papers 04-2025, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Padilla, Samantha & Ufer, Danielle J. & Morgan, Stephen & Link, Noah, "undated". "U.S. Export Competitiveness in Select Crop Markets," USDA Miscellaneous 333553, United States Department of Agriculture.

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