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Harvest-Time Protein Shocks and Price Adjustments in U.S. Wheat Markets

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  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Smith, Vincent H.

Abstract

Dynamic relationships between three classes of wheat are investigated using threshold VAR models incorporating the effects of protein availability. Changes in the stock of protein are found to generate significant impulse responses in the price of hard red spring wheat and hard red winter wheat but not soft red wheat. These impulse responses to identical changes in protein stocks are larger when the absolute deviation of protein stocks from normal levels are large. Shocks to the prices of individual classes of wheat result in complex impulse responses in the prices of the other wheats. Notably, however, a shock to the price of hard red winter weak appears to result in little or no impulse response in the price of hard spring wheat, though the opposite is not true.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodwin, Barry K. & Smith, Vincent H., 2005. "Harvest-Time Protein Shocks and Price Adjustments in U.S. Wheat Markets," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19173, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marsh, Thomas L., 2003. "Elasticities for U.S. Wheat Food Use by Class," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 57920, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001. "Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
    3. Barry K. Goodwin & Ted C. Schroeder, 1991. "Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 39(2), pages 237-254, July.
    4. John Spriggs & Michael Kaylen & David Bessler, 1982. "The Lead-Lag Relationship between Canadian and U.S. Wheat Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(3), pages 569-572.
    5. Stiegert, Kyle W. & Blanc, Jean-Pierre, 1997. "Japanese Demand For Wheat Protein Quantity And Quality," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(01), July.
    6. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-125, April-Jun.
    7. Espinosa, Juan Andres & Goodwin, Barry K., 1991. "Hedonic Price Estimation For Kansas Wheat Characteristics," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(01), July.
    8. Thomas L. Marsh, 2005. "Economic substitution for US wheat food use by class ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(3), pages 283-301, September.
    9. Parcell, Joseph L. & Stiegert, Kyle W., 1998. "Competition For U.S. Hard Wheat Characteristics," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
    10. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
    11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekkerman, Anton & Brester, Gary W. & Taylor, Mykel, 2016. "Forecasting a Moving Target: The Roles of Quality and Timing for Determining Northern U.S. Wheat Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(1), January.
    2. Jensā€Peter Loy & Thore Holm & Carsten Steinhagen & Thomas Glauben, 2015. "Seasonal Quality Premiums for Wheat: A Case Study for Northern Germany," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 63-75, January.
    3. Ruiqing Miao & David A. Hennessy, 2015. "Optimal Protein Segregation Strategies for Wheat Growers," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 63(3), pages 309-331, September.

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