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Harvest-Time Protein Shocks and Price Adjustment in U.S. Wheat Markets

  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Smith, Vincent H.

Dynamic relationships between three classes of wheat are investigated using threshold VAR models incorporating the effects of protein availability. Changes in the stock of protein are found to generate significant impulse responses in the price of hard spring red wheat and hard red winter wheat but not soft red wheat. These impulse responses to identical changes in protein stocks are larger when the absolute deviations of protein stocks from normal levels are large. Shocks to the prices of individual classes of wheat result in complex impulse responses in the prices of the other wheats. Notably, however, a shock to the price of hard red winter wheat appears to result in little or no impluse response in the price of hard spring wheat, though, importantly, the opposite is not true.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29156
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Paper provided by Montana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics in its series Agricultural Marketing Policy Center Agricultural Marketing Policy Papers with number 29156.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:mosmpp:29156
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Web page: http://www.montana.edu/econ
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  1. Stiegert, Kyle W. & Blanc, Jean-Pierre, 1997. "Japanese Demand For Wheat Protein Quantity And Quality," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(01), July.
  2. Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001. "Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
  3. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  5. Barry K. Goodwin & Ted C. Schroeder, 1991. "Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 39(2), pages 237-254, 07.
  6. Espinosa, Juan Andres & Goodwin, Barry K., 1991. "Hedonic Price Estimation For Kansas Wheat Characteristics," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(01), July.
  7. Parcell, Joseph L. & Stiegert, Kyle W., 1998. "Competition For U.S. Hard Wheat Characteristics," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
  8. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  9. Marsh, Thomas L., 2005. "Economic substitution for US wheat food use by class," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(3), September.
  10. Marsh, Thomas L., 2003. "Elasticities for U.S. Wheat Food Use by Class," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 57920, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
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