IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/nccc11/285345.html

Dynamic Inter-relationships in Hard Wheat Basis Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Wilson, William W.
  • Miljkovic, Dragan

Abstract

The basis values for hard red spring wheat (HRS) have escalated radically, experienced extraordinary levels of volatility (risk), have been subject to a squeeze during 2008, and all these have important implications for market participants. These observations are particularly important to marketers in the Northern Great Plains in the United States, as well as for Canadian marketers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to explore the dynamic relationships and interdependencies among terminal market basis values for milling quality higher-protein wheat. Specifically, we seek to identify factors impacting basis values for 13, 14, and 15% protein HRS wheat in addition to the intermakret wheat spread between Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat futures. We specify a vector autoregression (VAR) model to explore these relationships. Exogenous structural variables are specified in addition to dynamic inter-relationships including seasonal variability, inter-temporal variability and dynamic interdependencies among these markets and relationships. The results of interest are that: 1) basis values for these wheat markets been trending up, and have become more volatile; 2) factors impacting this variability is primarily the protein level in HRS, and production of HRW and Canadian (on high protein basis); 3) HRW protein supplies are not significant in the basis equations, but, do have an impact on the interrmarket wheat futures spread; 4) Quality levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilson, William W. & Miljkovic, Dragan, 2011. "Dynamic Inter-relationships in Hard Wheat Basis Markets," 2011 Conference, April 18-19, 2011, St. Louis, Missouri 285345, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccc11:285345
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285345/files/confp17-11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.285345?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    2. Kevin McNew & Duane Griffith, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Grain Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 164-180.
    3. Daniel S. Tilley & Steven K. Campbell, 1988. "Performance of the Weekly Gulf-Kansas City Hard-Red Winter Wheat Basis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(4), pages 929-935.
    4. Stiegert, Kyle W. & Blanc, Jean-Pierre, 1997. "Japanese Demand For Wheat Protein Quantity And Quality," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(01), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
    6. Wilson, William W. & Wilson, Wesley & Dahl, Bruce L., 2009. "Protein and the demand for hard wheats," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 1-19.
    7. Riley, John Michael, "undated". "Factors Influencing Basis and the Speed of Basis Adjustment in Grain Markets," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56540, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Naik, Gopal & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1991. "A Note on the Factors Affecting Corn Basis Relationships," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 147-153, July.
    9. Goodwin, Barry K. & Smith, Vincent H., 2009. "Harvest-Time Protein Shocks and Price Adjustment in U.S. Wheat Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Parcell, Joseph L. & Stiegert, Kyle W., 1998. "Competition For U.S. Hard Wheat Characteristics," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), pages 1-15, July.
    11. William W. Wilson & Bruce L. Dahl & D. Demcey Johnson, 2007. "Quality Uncertainty and Challenges to Wheat Procurement," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 55(3), pages 315-326, September.
    12. S.R. Thompson & J.S. Eales & R.J. Hauser, 1990. "An Empirical Analysis of Cash and Futures Grain Price Relationships in the North Central Region," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 12(2), pages 241-254.
    13. A. J. Aulton & C. T. Ennew & A. J. Rayner, 1997. "Efficiency Tests Of Futures Markets For Uk Agricultural Commodities," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 408-424, January.
    14. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    15. Bruce L. Dahl & William W. Wilson & Wesley W. Wilson, 1999. "Factors Affecting Spring Wheat Variety Choices: Comparisons between Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 47(3), pages 305-320, November.
    16. William W. Wilson & Bruce Dahl, 2011. "Grain pricing and transportation: dynamics and changes in markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 420-434, September.
    17. Kevin McNew & Duane Griffith, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Grain Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 164-180.
    18. Plato, Gerald & Hoffman, Linwood, 2010. "Price Discovery and Convergence of Futures and Cash Prices," 2010 Conference, April 19-20, 2010, St. Louis, Missouri 285315, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    19. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    20. Jiang, Bingrong, 1997. "Corn and soybean basis behavior and forecasting: fundamental and alternative approaches," ISU General Staff Papers 1997010108000013213, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    21. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    22. Naik, Gopal & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1991. "A Note On The Factors Affecting Corn Basis Relationships," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), pages 1-7, July.
    23. Hayenga, Marvin L. & Jiang, Bingrong, 1997. "Corn and Soybean Basis Behavior and Forecasting: Fundamental and Alternative Approaches," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10400, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    24. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dragan Miljkovic & Cole Goetz, 2023. "Futures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(1), pages 104-117, January.
    3. Anton Bekkerman, 2021. "Quality forecasts: Predicting when and how much markets value higher‐protein wheat," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(4), pages 465-490, December.
    4. Goetz, Cole & Miljkovic, Dragan & Barabanov, Nikita, 2021. "New empirical evidence in support of the theory of price volatility of storable commodities under rational expectations in spot and futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Bekkerman, Anton & Worley, R. Trey, 2020. "Quality Forecasts: Predicting When and How Much Markets Value Higher Protein Wheat," 2020 Conference, St. Louis, Missouri 309639, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Miljkovic, Dragan & Goetz, Cole, 2020. "The effects of futures markets on oil spot price volatility in regional US markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    7. Dragan Miljkovic & Cole Goetz, 2020. "Destabilizing role of futures markets on North American hard red spring wheat spot prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 887-897, November.
    8. Adjemian, Michael K. & Janzen, Joseph & Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement," Economic Research Report 167369, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bullock, Shaina S. & Bullock, David W. & Wilson, William W., 2023. "Short-Term Factors Influencing Corn Export Basis Values in the Pre- and Post-COVID Periods: A Comparison of Econometric and Machine Learning Approaches," 2023 Conference, April 24-25, 2023, St. Louis, Missouri 379019, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    2. Shafer, Carl E., "undated". "Hedge Ratios and Basis Behavior: An Intuitive Insight?," Faculty Paper Series 257887, Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    3. Anton Bekkerman & Mykel Taylor, 2020. "The Role of Spatial Density and Technological Investment on Optimal Pricing Strategies in the Grain Handling Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(1), pages 27-58, August.
    4. Bekkerman, Anton & Pelletier, Denis, 2009. "Basis Volatilities of Corn and Soybean in Spatially Separated Markets: The Effect of Ethanol Demand," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49281, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 1998. "Forecasting Crop Basis: Practical Alternatives," 1981-1999 Conference Archive 285711, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Bekkerman, Anton & Taylor, Mykel, 2015. "A Bayesian Learning Approach to Estimating Unbalanced Spatial Panel Models," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205507, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1-19, December.
    8. Bullock, David W. & Wilson, William W. & Lakkakula, Prithviraj, 2020. "Short-Term Dynamics and Structural Changes in the United States and Brazil Soybean Basis: Seasonality, Volatility, Structural Breaks and Information Flows," 2020 Conference, St. Louis, Missouri 309641, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    9. P. J. Dawson & A. L. Tiffin & B. White, 2000. "Optimal Hedging Ratios for Wheat and Barley at the LIFFE: A GARCH Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 147-161, May.
    10. Zhang, Rui (Carolyn) & Houston, Jack E., 2005. "Effects of Price Volatility and Surging South American Soybean Production on Short-run Soybean Basis Dynamics," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19038, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    11. Roberts, Shane & Brooks, Kathleen & Nogueira, Lia & Walters, Cory G., 2022. "The role of quality characteristics in pricing hard red winter wheat," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Adjemian, Michael K. & Kuethe, Todd & Breneman, Vince, 2011. "A Spatial Approach to Estimating Factors that Influence the Corn Basis," 2011 Conference, April 18-19, 2011, St. Louis, Missouri 285339, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    13. Prilly Oktoviany & Robert Knobloch & Ralf Korn, 2021. "A machine learning-based price state prediction model for agricultural commodities using external factors," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1063-1085, December.
    14. Jasper Grashuis, 2019. "Spatial Competition in the Iowa Corn Market: Informing the Pricing Behavior of Corporate and Cooperative Grain Merchants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, February.
    15. Gaurav Arora & Peter T. Wolter & Hongli Feng & David A. Hennessy, 2016. "Role of Ethanol Plants in Dakotas Land Use Change: Incorporating Flexible Trends in the Difference-in-Difference Framework with Remotely-Sensed Data," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp564, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    16. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 513-523, December.
    17. M.A.Hossain, 2001. "On Export-Led Growth: Is Manufacturing Exports a New Engine of Growth for Bangladesh?," Discussion Papers Series 297, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    18. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    19. Guo, Kevin & Leung, Tim, 2017. "Understanding the non-convergence of agricultural futures via stochastic storage costs and timing options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 32-49.
    20. Jose A. Zabala & Maria A. Prats, 2020. "The unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank: Effectiveness and transmission analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 794-809, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:nccc11:285345. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.