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Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information

  • Taylor, Mykel R.
  • Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.
  • Kastens, Terry L.

This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis, using current market information for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Though generally not statistically superior, an historical one-year average was optimal for corn, milo, and soybean harvest and post-harvest basis forecasts. A one-year average was also best for wheat post-harvest basis forecasts, whereas a five-year average was the best method for forecasting wheat harvest basis. Incorporating current market information, defined as basis deviation from historical average, improved the accuracy of post-harvest basis forecasts. A naive forecast incorporating current information was often the most accurate for post-harvest basis forecasts.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8625
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Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2006)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8625
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://waeaonline.org/

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  1. Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1999. "Post-Harvest Grain Storing And Hedging With Efficient Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December.
  2. B. Wade Brorsen & John Coombs & Kim Anderson, 1995. "The cost of forward contracting wheat," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 349-354.
  3. repec:jaa:jagape:v:32:y:2000:i:1:p:89-94 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Dietz, Sarah N., 2005. "Wheat Forward Contract Pricing: Evidence on Forecast Power and Risk Premia," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19043, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  5. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
  6. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1997. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Finance 9711004, EconWPA.
  7. Tonsor, Glynn T. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Mintert, James R., 2004. "Improving Cattle Basis Forecasting," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(02), August.
  8. Townsend, John P. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1997. "Cost of Forward Contracting Hard Red Winter Wheat," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\Sparks, Nevada 35749, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
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