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Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers

Author

Listed:
  • Carl R. Zulauf

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Scott H. Irwin

    (The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

Recent changes in farm policy have renewed interest in using marketing strategies based on futures and options markets to enhance the income of field crop producers. This article reviews the literature surrounding the dominant academic theory of the behavior of futures and options markets, the efficient market hypothesis. The following conclusion is reached: while individuals can beat the market, few can consistently do so. This conclusion is consistent with Grossman and Stiglitz's model of market efficiency in which individuals who consistently earn trading returns have superior access to information or superior analytical ability. One implication is that, with few exceptions, the crop producers who survive will be those with the lowest cost of production since efforts to improve revenue through better marketing will have limited success. There do appear to be some successful marketing strategies. One is to base storage decisions on when a producer harvests the crop relative to the national harvest of the crop. Another is to base storage decisions on whether the current basis exceeds the cost of storage, and then to use hedging to assure an expected positive return.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1997. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Finance 9711004, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9711004
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on PC; to print on HP Laserjet; pages: 47; figures: included. Office for Futures and Options Research (OFOR) at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. Working Paper 97-04. For a complete list of OFOR working papers see
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf & Thomas E. Jackson, 1996. "Monte Carlo Analysis of Mean Reversion in Commodity Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 387-399.
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    Cited by:

    1. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 89-103, April.
    2. O'Brien, Daniel M., 2000. "Do Profitable Grain Marketing Strategies Exist For Kansas Crops?," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21758, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Jackson, Thomas E., 2000. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Corn And Soybean Markets Over 1995-1998," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14786, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    4. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    5. Jirik, Mark A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes, 2000. "The Performance Of Agricultural Market Advisory Services In Marketing Wheat," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18928, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Jacobs, Keri & Li, Ziran & Hayes, Dermot, 2016. "Price responses in forward contracting: do we limit the upside and expose the downside?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235539, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Joni M. Klumpp & B. Wade Brorsen & Kim B. Anderson, 2008. "Market Advisory Service Recommendations and Wheat Producers' Selling Decisions," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(1), pages 117-128, March.
    8. Lai, Jing-Yi & Myers, Robert J. & Hanson, Steven D., 2003. "Optimal On-Farm Grain Storage by Risk-Averse Farmers," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(03), December.
    9. Jirik, Mark A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Jackson, Thomas E., 2001. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Wheat Market Over 1995-1998," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14778, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    10. Lewis T. Cunningham & B. Wade Brorsen & Kim B. Anderson & Emílio Tostão, 2008. "Gender differences in marketing styles," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(1), pages 1-7, January.
    11. Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Irwin, Scott H., 2002. "The Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services In Corn And Soybeans Over 1995-2000," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14784, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    12. Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(03), December.
    13. Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1999. "Post-Harvest Grain Storing And Hedging With Efficient Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December.
    14. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market Efficiency; marketing strategies; futures; options;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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