Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures
Three procedures are used to test Fama semistrong from efficiency of harvesttime price of Kansas City July wheat futures from 1947 through 1995. The three methods are (a) testing for jointly significant parameter estimates on nonfutures explanatory variables in econometric forecasting models, (b) testing the relative accuracy between model-based forecasts and using deferred futures prices as forecasts, and (c) testing for abnormal profits associated with simulated futures trading signaled by the forecasts. Kansas City July wheat futures are generally efficient. Furthermore, relative to the efficiency associated with forecasts constructed one to two months before harvest, the efficiency associated with the five- to six-month period before harvest has increased, especially since the early 1980s.
Volume (Year): 21 (1996)
Issue (Month): 02 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://waeaonline.org/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gerlow, Mary E. & Irwin, Scott H. & Liu, Te-Ru, 1993. "Economic evaluation of commodity price forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 387-397, November.
- Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1981.
"Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses: Some Further Results,"
430, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert & Davidson, Russell, 1983. "Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses : Some further results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-70, January.
- Darwin M. Pluhar & Carl E. Shafer & Thomas L. Sporleder, 1985. "The systematic downward bias in live cattle futures: A further evaluation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 11-20, 03.
- Bessler, David A. & Brandt, Jon A., 1992. "An analysis of forecasts of livestock prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 249-263, July.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
- Allen, P. Geoffrey, 1994. "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 81-135, June.
- Harvey, Andrew C. & Collier, Patrick, 1977. "Testing for functional misspecification in regression analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 103-119, July.
- James S. Eales & Brian K. Engel & Robert J. Hauser & Sarahelen R. Thompson, 1990. "Grain Price Expectations of Illinois Farmers and Grain Merchandisers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 701-708.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:31035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.