Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs
The informational content in live cattle and hog deferred futures prices is assessed using a direct test of incremental forecast ability for two- to twelve-month horizons. For 1976-2007, the results indicate that hog futures prices add incremental information at all horizons, but unique information in live cattle prices declines quickly beyond the eight-month horizon with no incremental information at the twelve-month horizon. The contrast in performance is likely attributable to differences in the quality of public information and the nature of the production process.
Volume (Year): 33 (2008)
Issue (Month): 01 (April)
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- Vuchelen, Jef & Gutierrez, Maria-Isabel, 2005. "A direct test of the information content of the OECD growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-117.
- Kastens, Terry L. & Jones, Rodney D. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1998. "Futures-Based Price Forecasts For Agricultural Producers And Businesses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
- Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2005. "Forecast Encompassing as the Necessary Condition to Reject Futures Market Efficiency: Fluid Milk Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 610-620.
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