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Futures-Based Price Forecasts For Agricultural Producers And Businesses

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  • Kastens, Terry L.
  • Jones, Rodney D.
  • Schroeder, Ted C.

Abstract

The forecasting accuracy of five competing naïve and futures-based localized cash price forecasts is determined. The third-week's price each month from 1987-96 is forecasted from several vantage points. Commodities examine include those relevant to Midwest producers: the major grains, slaughter steers, slaughter hogs, several classes of feeder cattle, cull cows, and sows. Relative forecasting accuracy across forecast method is compared using regression models of forecast error. The traditional forecast method deferred futures plus historical basis has the greatest accuracy- even for cull cows. Adding complexity to forecasts, such as including regression models to capture nonlinear bases or biases in futures markets, does not improve accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kastens, Terry L. & Jones, Rodney D. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1998. "Futures-Based Price Forecasts For Agricultural Producers And Businesses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:31187
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.31187
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    Cited by:

    1. Onel, Gulcan & Karali, Berna, 2014. "Relative Performance of Semi-Parametric Nonlinear Models in Forecasting Basis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169795, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Altman, Ira J. & Sanders, Dwight & Schneider, Jonathan, 2008. "Producer-Level Hedging Effectiveness of Class III Milk Futures," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2008, pages 1-8.
    3. Burdine, Kenneth H. & Meyer, A. Lee & Maynard, Leigh J., 2004. "Understanding The Market For Holstein Steers," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20230, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Tao Xiong & Miao Li & Jia Cao, 2023. "Do Futures Prices Help Forecast Spot Prices? Evidence from China’s New Live Hog Futures," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
    6. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-12, April.
    7. Renyuan Shao & Brian Roe, 2003. "The design and pricing of fixed‐ and moving‐window contracts: An application of Asian‐Basket option pricing methods to the hog‐finishing sector," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(11), pages 1047-1073, November.
    8. Bekkerman, Anton & Brester, Gary W. & Taylor, Mykel, 2016. "Forecasting a Moving Target: The Roles of Quality and Timing for Determining Northern U.S. Wheat Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Parcell, Joseph L., 2002. "Crop Basis Patterns In The Presence Of Spatial Competition And Government Intervention," Working Papers 26043, University of Missouri Columbia, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    10. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 513-523, December.
    11. Parcell, Joe L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2000. "Factors Affecting Live Cattle Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 531-541, December.
    12. Evelyn V. Colino & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(1), pages 1-15.
    13. Melissa G. S. McKendree & Glynn T. Tonsor & Ted C. Schroeder & Nathan P. Hendricks, 2020. "Impacts of Retail and Export Demand on United States Cattle Producers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 866-883, May.
    14. Sanders, Dwight & Apgar, Gary & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "Using Farm-Level Data to Improve Marketing and Planning: An Illustration with Live Hogs," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2005, pages 1-8.
    15. Xu Xiaojie, 2018. "Using Local Information to Improve Short-Run Corn Price Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    16. Hedtrich, F. & Loy, J.-P. & Müller, R.A.E., 2010. "Prognosen auf Agrarmärkten: Prediction Markets – eine innovative Prognosemethode auch für die Landwirtschaft?," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    17. Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1999. "Post-Harvest Grain Storing And Hedging With Efficient Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 1-24, December.
    18. Vollmer, Teresa & Holst, Carsten, 2016. "Dienen Terminmarktnotierungen Für Schlachtschweine Zur Prognose Zukünftiger Preisentwicklungen?," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244806, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    19. Parcell, Joseph L., 2000. "The Impact Of The Ldp On Corn And Soybean Basis In Missouri," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18932, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    20. Tonsor, Glynn T. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Mintert, James R., 2004. "Improving Cattle Basis Forecasting," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-14, August.

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