New Mse Tests For Evaluating Forecasting Performance: Empirics And Bootstrap
Two asymptotically valid out-of-sample MSE tests have been developed by Diebold-Mariano (1995) and Stock-Watson (1999). The empirical usefulness of the tests is illustrated through a U.S. wheat model estimated with fixed, recursive and rolling forecasting schemes. Bootstrap methods are adopted to reflect small sample size effect on tests.
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202|
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Kenyon & Eluned Jones & M. Anya McGuirk, 1993. "Forecasting Performance of Corn and Soybean Harvest Futures Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(2), pages 399-407.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999.
"Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
1241, Society for Computational Economics.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
- West, Kenneth D, 1996.
"Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
- Park, Timothy A., 1990. "Forecast Evaluation For Multivariate Time-Series Models: The U.S. Cattle Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(01), July.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1998. "Bayesian Composite Qualitative Forecasting: Hog Prices Again," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 543-551.
- Annette L. Clauson, 1997. "Forecasting Retail Food Prices Under Current Conditions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1669-1672.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20686. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.