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New Mse Tests For Evaluating Forecasting Performance: Empirics And Bootstrap

  • Robledo, Carlos W.
  • Zapata, Hector O.
  • McCracken, Michael

Two asymptotically valid out-of-sample MSE tests have been developed by Diebold-Mariano (1995) and Stock-Watson (1999). The empirical usefulness of the tests is illustrated through a U.S. wheat model estimated with fixed, recursive and rolling forecasting schemes. Bootstrap methods are adopted to reflect small sample size effect on tests.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20686
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Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL with number 20686.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20686
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  1. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
  2. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  3. Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  5. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  7. Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1998. "Bayesian Composite Qualitative Forecasting: Hog Prices Again," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 543-551.
  8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  10. Annette L. Clauson, 1997. "Forecasting Retail Food Prices Under Current Conditions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1669-1672.
  11. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
  12. Park, Timothy A., 1990. "Forecast Evaluation For Multivariate Time-Series Models: The U.S. Cattle Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(01), July.
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